The Los Angeles Rams will host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, September 8th to kick off the 2022-2023 NFL season. The Rams opened as a -1 point favorite months ago and as we approach kickoff, the Bills are now favored by -2.5. The total is 52 at betonline sportsbook.
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This game has to be the most anticipated NFL season opener, perhaps ever. What a matchup. Last years Super Bowl Champions hosting this years favorites to win it all! The Buffalo Bills are drawing the majority of the action on this game. The betting public is all over the Bills. Is it warranted?
First, let’s be clear. There is no “edge” to be found in a game like this. It’s not as if this is a Patriot League college football game between Georgetown and Colgate where there is legit winning information and edges to be found by the astute handicapper. This is the NFL, the world most heavily bet sport.
The line move here comes from the very simple public perception that one team is going to be hungrier than the other. That team would be the Bills. Oh so close a year ago, most people believe this is the year they kick the door down and win it all.
On the other side you have the world champion Rams. They are at the top of the mountain where it’s not always easy to match the intensity and emotion from their Super Bowl run. That’s the perception, but past Super Bowl winners might disagree. Super Bowl Champs are 19-3 straight up (13-7 ATS) in their first game of the season going back 22 years!
Let’s take a look at how our model sees the game using data from last season. In other words, if this game were played the week after the Super Bowl, here’s is the prediction.
Buffalo 2.5 24 LA Rams 52.0 26 using last season data Buffalo 2.5 35 LA Rams 52.0 29 last 4 games data Buffalo 2.5 23 LA Rams 52.0 27 last 7 games data
So, using the entire body of work for each team in 2021 we see a prediction of 26-24 in favor of the Rams. Using the stretch run of the last 7 games, including the playoffs, we see a 4 point Rams win, 27-23. Lastly using only the last 4 games of data for both teams, the Bills are the predicted winner by 6.
Another way to make a quick number on an NFL game is by using the yards per play stat. When doing so here, the number is Buffalo by 2 on a neutral field. Giving the Rams 2 points for home field and we have the game as a pick em.
So any way we slice this game up it comes up as a toss up. As with most NFL games with teams of this caliber, it will come down to mistakes and big plays.
I would stay away from this game at the current number. However if the game were to move to Buffalo -3, or if +3 on the Rams was attainable at a fair price, the value would be with the Rams in what for all intents and purposes is a toss up.
Plus you get to buck the public and most of the rest of the betting world, which is always a good idea!
Rams +3
Preferably at less than -120 which is currently available at a book or two.