Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Week 6 Pick

lions vs. bucs pick
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In a big NFC clash in the Sunshine State between two teams with one loss the Buccaneers host the Lions.

Even on the road the Lions are a 3-point favorite with the total sitting at 43.5. The public has bet this game even so far, as the line has not changed as of Thursday.

The Lions won their third in a row in their last game to move to 4-1 on the season with a 42-24 home win over the winless Carolina Panthers. They covered the spread as a 10-point favorite and have covered in their last three games.

The Bucs had a bye last week and in their last game their defense was legit in a 26-9 road win over the New Orleans Saints. They covered the spread as a 4.5-point underdog and they are 3-1 ATS on the season.

Tampa Bay has only faced one team with a winning record, which they lost, and Detroit has one game facing a team with a winning record, which was a win in their opener facing the Chiefs.

Offense Getting It Gone

The Lions’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack, but they have the league’s fourth highest-scoring offense (29.6 ppg) and rank in the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards per game.

In Detroit’s win over Carolina, they only outgained the Panthers by 35 yards. but forced three turnovers without committing any and rushed for 159 yards while allowing 99 yards on the ground. Jared Goff was more than solid with 236 yards with three TD and no INT, David Montgomery rushed for 109 yards, and three players had at least 45 receiving yards.

Goff (1,265 yards 9 TD 3 INT) ranks fifth in the league in QBR and has only been sacked seven times in five games. Montgomery has totaled 230 rushing yards in the last two games and may shoulder the load in the backfield facing the Bucs with rookie first round draft pick Jahmyr Gibbs, who missed the last game, listed as questionable.

The Lions have won both of their road games this season.

Goff and company will be facing a Tampa defense that ranks 10th in the NFL against the run and 16th against the pass.

Baker has Delivered

Baker Mayfield came to the Bucs and was not promised the starting job and looked to show he can be a solid #1 QB. He has not put up big numbers but has gotten the job done and ranks sixth in the league in QBR.

In the win over the Saints in the last game the Tampa D held them to only 197 total yards, forced three turnovers and had 353 total yards.

Mayfield (882 yards 7 TD 2 INT) has been making good reads and is playing free and it helps to have a great WR duo in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who have combined for 562 yards and three TD. RB Rachaad White (206 yards 1 TD) has helped out but is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry.

The Bucs will face a Lions’ defense that ranks 17th in the league against the pass and third against the run.

Betting Trends

The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.

The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games facing the Bucs.

The Bucs are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games.

The total has gone Under for four of the Bucs last five games.

Our Pick – Bucs +3

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