In a big AFC matchup in primetime on Sunday night the Jacksonville Jaguars play host to the Baltimore Ravens.
The oddsmakers have the Ravens as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 42.5 while the total has gone down a point and a half since opening the spread has not changed.
The Ravens moved to 10-3 in their last game winning their third in a row in a 37-31 OT home win over the L.A. Rams. They failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite and they had covered the spread in their previous two games.
The Jags fell to 8-5 losing their second in a row in their last game in a 31-27 road loss to the Cleveland Browns. They failed to cover the spread as a 2-point underdog and have not covered in their last two games.
On the season the Ravens are 8-5 ATS with an O/U record of 6-7 and the Jags are also 8-5 ATS with an O/U record of 7-6.
These teams met last season in Jacksonville where the Jaguars beat the Ravens 28-27.
Offense Has Heated Up
After averaging 22.2 ppg over the first five games the Ravens have averaged 32.6 ppg over the last seven games.
In the OT win over the Rams the Ravens outgained them 449 yards to 410 yards but had the only turnover in the game.
In the Rams win, Lamar Jackson passed for 316 yards with three TD and an INT and led the team with 70 rushing yards. Odell Beckham Jr. and Isaiah Likely each had a TD and combined for 180 receiving yards.
Jackson (2,934 yards 16 TD 6 TD) ranks 10th in QBR and in the Ravens’ three-game win streak he has six TD and only one pick. He also leads the team in rushing yards (644 yards 5 TD) and lead RB Gus Edwards (605 yards 10 TD) has only totaled 41 rushing yards in the last two games. Three players for the team have at least 505 receiving yards.
Baltimore ranks fourth in the league in scoring (27.8 ppg), 19th in passing yards per game, and first in rushing yards per game.
The Ravens will face a Jax defense that ranks tied for 20th in points against (22.3 ppg), 31st against the pass, and fourth against the run.
Defensive Issues
While the Jags have scored 31 points and 27 points, respectively, in their last two games they lost both where they gave up 34 points and 31 points.
In the loss to the Browns in the last game Jax was outgained 389 yards to 293 yards, only rushed for 58 yards, and while they forced three turnovers, they had four of them.
In the Cleveland loss Trevor Lawrence passed for 257 yards and while tossing three TD he also had three INT. Travis Etienne Jr. led the team with only 35 yards averaging a less than stellar 2.5 yards per carry and Evan Engram led the way with 95 receiving yards and two TD.
Lawrence (3.261 yards 17 TD 10 INT) ranks ninth in the league in QBR and the three-pick game in the last one was only his second multiple INT game of the season.
Etienne Jr. (806 yards 9 TD) is listed as questionable and has only totaled 80 rushing yards in the last two games. If he cannot go it will be a big blow, as second leading RB D’Ernest Johnson is also listed as questionable and only has 102 rushing yards.
While leading receiver Christian Kirk (787 yards 3 TD) is on IR Jax still has Calvin Ridley and Engram, who each have over 700 receiving yards.
Laurence and company will be facing a Ravens’ D that ranks second in the league in points against (16.8 ppg), fourth against the pass, and 12th against the run.
Betting Trends
The Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games facing a team with a winning record.
The Ravens have an Under record of 4-1 in their last five road games.
The Jags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
The Jags are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games facing a team with a winning record.
The Jags have an Over record of 5-1 in their last six games following a loss.
Here our the score predictions from our model on this game. There are 3 predictions. The first uses data from the entire season. The 2nd uses data from the last 4 games and the 3rd uses data from the last 7 games.
Baltimore -3.0 24 Jacksonville 43.5 20 Baltimore -3.0 38 Jacksonville 43.5 25 Baltimore -3.0 30 Jacksonville 43.5 22