Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants – Week 14 NFL Betting Analysis

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In a Monday night NFC matchup, the Giants host a Packers’ team that has come to life as of late and is in the playoff hunt.

The oddsmakers have the Packers as a 6.5-point road favorite with the total sitting at 37 points. The public has been backing Green Bay, as they opened as a 6-point favorite and as of Friday are a 6.5-point favorite.

The Packers evened their record at 6-6 with their third win in a row in their last game, which was an impressive 27-19 home win over the Kansas City Chiefs. They covered the spread as a 6-point underdog and they have covered in four of their last five games including their last three.

The Giants are only 4-8 but they have won two in a row and in their last game they were at home and beat the New England Patriots 10-7. They covered as a 3.5-point underdog and they have covered the spread in their last two games.

On the season the Packers are 7-5 ATS with an O/U record of 6-6 and the Giants are 4-7-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-9.

These teams met last season in Green Bay where the Giants beat the Packers 27-22.

Outdueling the MVP

In the Packers win over the Chiefs Jordan Love outdueled reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. He passed for more yards (267-210), had more TD (3-1), and did not throw a pick while Mahomes had one. Green Bay outgained Kansas City 382 yards to 337 yards, rushed for 129 yards and did not have a turnover.

In the KC win AJ Dillon led the way with 73 yards and Romeo Doubs Christian Watson combined for 143 yards and two TD.

On the season the Packers rank tied for 17th in scoring (21.5 ppg), 18th in passing yards per game, and 20th in rushing yards per game.

Love (2,866 yards 22 TD 10 INT) ranks 14th in the league in QBR and he has been one of the main reasons Green Bay has won three in a row, as in that span, he has eight TD and no picks.

One concern for the Packers in this game is their run game, as Dillon (521 yards 1 TD) and Aaron Jones (245 yards 2 TD) are both banged up and questionable to face the Giants.

Green Bay will be up against a New York defense that ranks 26th in the league in points against (24.3 ppg), 20th against the pass, and 28th against the run.

Can the Giants Beat a Good Team?

The Giants have four wins this season and all the teams they have beat are all well under .500.

In the ugly 10-7 win over the Patriots in their last game the Giants were outgained 283 yards to 220 yards and only rushed for 58 yards but they forced three turnovers and did not commit any.

In the win over the Pats Tommy DeVito passed for 191 yards with a TD and no INT, Saquon Barkley led the way with 46 rushing yards, and Jalin Hyatt had 109 receiving yards.

The Giants’ offense is less than dynamic, to say the least, ranking second to last in scoring (13.3 ppg), dead last in passing yards per game, and 18th in rushing yards per game.

DeVito (697 yards 7 TD 3 INT) will get the start in this game and while he has six TD and one INT in the last three games, he has been sacked 20 times in that span. Barkley (697 yards 1 TD) had averaged 79.7 rushing yards per game over three games where he averaged over five yards per carry before the last game where he only had 46 yards averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

The Giants will face a Packers’ defense that ranks a legit ninth in the league in points against (20.3 ppg), 10th against the pass, and 30th against the run.

Betting Trends

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games.

The Packers have an Over record of 5-1 in their last six games as a road favorite.

The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games facing teams from the NFC.

The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The Giants have an Under record of 39-16-3 in their last 58 home games.

OUR PICK – PACKERS -6