Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills – Week 15 NFL Pick

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cowboys at bills pick
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In one of the marquee games of the weekend the desperate Buffalo Bills host the hot Dallas Cowboys in a non-conference clash.

The Bills come into this game as a slight 1.5-point home favorite with the total sitting at 50.5. The public has been backing America’s Team, as Dallas opened as a 2-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 1.5-point dog.

The Cowboys moved to 10-3 winning their fifth in a row in their last game in a big 33-13 home win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas covered as a 3.5-point favorite and they have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

The Bills (7-6) got a much-needed win in their last game in a 20-17 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs. They covered the spread as a 1-point underdog and they are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games.

On the season the Cowboys are 9-4 ATS with an O/U record of 8-5 and the Bills are 5-7-1 ATS with an O/U record of 4-9.

Impressive Win

In their last game the Cowboys were more than impressive in their win over the Eagles (10-3), where they are now atop the NFC East because of division record. They outgained Philly 394 yards to 324 yards, had a 24-6 halftime lead, and forced three turnovers and committed one.

Dak Prescott kept up his solid play in the last game passing for 271 yards with two TD and no INT, Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle combined for 105 yards, and Jake Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb combined for 143 receiving yards.

Prescott (3,505 28 TD 6 INT) may now be the MVP front runner, ranks second in the NFL in QBR and over the last four games has 11 TD and no picks. Pollard (796 yards 5 TD) may shoulder more of the rushing load with Dowdle (307 yards 2 TD) listed as questionable. Lamb (1,253 yards 8 TD) ranks third in the league in receiving yards and has a TD catch in each of the last five games.

On the season the Cowboys are the highest scoring team in the league (32.1 ppg) and rank second in passing yards per game and 11th in rushing yards per game.

Prescott and company will be facing a Buffalo defense that ranks sixth in points against (18.8 ppg), 11th against the pass, and 19th against the run.

The last three games for America’s Team have been at home where they are 7-0 while only 3-3 on the road.

Outside Looking In

The Bills are on the outside looking in, as if the playoffs started today, they would be out. They need a strong finish, as they are tied with a few other teams at 7-6 but what hurts them is that they are under .500 in AFC play (4-5).

Most of the press about last week’s games have been about the offsides call for the Chiefs, which negated their late TD in the loss to the Bills. The win was crucial for Buffalo to stay in the playoff race and in the W they were outgained (327 yards to 346 yards), forced two turnovers and committed one, and their D came up big after the offsides penalty holding Kansas City on downs.

In the KC win Josh Allen passed for 233 yards with a TD and a pick and RB James Cook had a big game with 58 rushing yards and also led the team with 83 receiving yards and a TD.

Allen (3,447 yards 25 TD 14 INT) ranks third in the league in QBR but has thrown at least one INT in nine straight games. Cook (789 yards 1 TD) has at least 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last four games. Stefon Diggs (993 yards 8 TD) leads the team in receiving yards but only has more than 34 yards in one of the last four games.

Buffalo ranks fifth in the league in scoring (26.8 ppg), fifth in passing yards per game, and 10th in rushing yards per game.

The Bills’ offense will face a Cowboys’ defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in points against (17.9 ppg), fifth against the pass, and 13th against the run.

Betting Trends

The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.

The Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 14 points.

The Cowboys have an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 road games.

The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

The Bills are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

The Bills have an Under record of 5-0 in their last five home games.

Here our the score predictions from our model on this game. There are 3 predictions. The first uses data from the entire season. The 2nd uses data from the last 4 games and the 3rd uses data from the last 7 games.

Dallas                    48.5          24           
Buffalo                   -2.0          24
  
Dallas                    48.5          25           
Buffalo                   -2.0          33
  
Dallas                    48.5          29           
Buffalo                   -2.0          26
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