In a Monday night matchup between two teams that currently have the top seed in their respective conferences the San Francisco 49ers play host to the Baltimore Ravens.
The oddsmakers have the 49ers as a 5.5-poiint favorite in this game with a total at 46.5. The public has been backing San Fran, as they opened as a 5-point favorite and are a 5.5-point favorite as of Friday.
The Ravens moved to 11-3 in their last game in their fourth win in a row in a 23-7 road win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. They covered the spread as a 4-point favorite and have covered in three of their last four games.
The 49ers also moved to 11-3 in their last game winning their sixth in a row in a 45-29 road win over the Arizona Cardinals. They covered 12-point favorite and they have also covered the spread in three of their last four games.
On the season the Ravens are 9-5 ATS with an O/U record of 6-8 and the 49ers are 8-6 ATS with an O/U record of 7-6-1.
Playing to their Strength
The Ravens rank first in the NFL in points against (16.1 ppg) and they played to that strength in the win over the Jags. They outgained them 396 yards to 333 yards, held them to 3-13 on third down, and held them to 0-3 in the Red Zone.
In the Jax win Lamar Jackson passed for 171 yards with a TD and an INT and led the team with 93 rushing yards and Isaiah Likely had 70 receiving yards and a score.
Not only do the Ravens have the league’s top-ranked defense but also rank fourth in scoring (27.4 ppg).
Jackson (3,105 yards 17 TD 7 INT) ranks eighth in the league in QBR, leads the team with 741 rushing yards, and while he has two picks in the last two games, he has four TD and has rushed for 167 yards. Gus Edwards (663 yards 11 TD) ranks second in rushing yards for Baltimore, who leads the league in rushing yards per game.
The Ravens will be facing a San Fran defense that ranks second in the league in points against (16.7 ppg), 15th against the pass, and third against the run.
Double-Digit Win Again
Not only have the 49ers won five in a row but have won all five by double digits. In that span have won by an average of 19 ppg.
In the win over the Cardinals the 49ers were outgained (406 yards to 436 yards) and gave up 234 rushing yards but were 4-4 in the Red Zone and forced two turnovers while not committing any.
In the Arizona win Brock Purdy added to his MVP resume’ passing for 242 yards with four TD and no picks and Christian McCaffrey also helped his MVP case with 115 rushing yards and a TD and 72 receiving yards and two scores.
The 49ers rank third in the league in scoring (30.4 ppg), second in passing yards per game, and third in rushing yards per game.
Purdy (3,795 yards 29 TD 7 INT) has the highest QBR in the league and over the last three games has 10 TD and one INT. McCaffrey 1,292 yards 13 TD) leads the NFL in rushing yards, has 509 receiving yards and seven TD, and has at least 114 rushing yards in three of the last five games including the last two.
The 49ers also are stacked when it comes to pass catches, as the WR duo of Brandon Aiyuk and Debo Samuel have combined for 1,877 receiving yards, TE George Kittle has 865 receiving yards, and all three players have six TD.
Purdy and company will be facing the Ravens and their top-ranked defense that ranks sixth in the league against the pass and 10th against the run.
The Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.
The Ravens have an Under record of 5-1 in their last six road games.
The 49ers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.
The 49ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games facing a team with a winning record.
The 49ers have an Over record of 4-1 in their last five games facing a team with a winning record.
Here’s the way our model sees the game. The 1st prediction uses full season data, the 2nd uses the last 4 games and the 3rd uses the last 7. Close…..at this point the value lies with the Ravens +6 or more.
Baltimore 46.0 18 San Francisco -6.0 23 Baltimore 46.0 26 San Francisco -6.0 26 Baltimore 46.0 21 San Francisco -6.0 28