Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins – Week 16 NFL Pick

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cowboys at dolphins pick
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In a marquee non-conference matchup in the Sunshine State the Miami Dolphins play host to the Dallas Cowboys.

The Dolphins are a slight 1.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 50.5. The public has been backing Miami in this game, as they opened as a 1-point favorite and are at -1.5 as of Thursday.

The Cowboys are 10-4 and saw their five-game win streak end in their last game in a 31-10 road loss to the Buffalo Bills. America’s Team came nowhere near covering the spread as a 2.5-point underdog and have failed to cover in two of the last three games.

The Dolphins moved to 10-4 with an impressive 30-0 home win over the New York Jets in their last game. They covered as a 7-point favorite and have covered the spread in three of their last four games.

Both of these teams are 9-5 ATS with an O/U record of 8-6.

Can the Cowboys Win on the Road?

While the Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 at home they are only 3-4 on the road. They are in the playoffs and have the tiebreaker over the Philadelphia Eagles but if they fall behind them with three games remaining, they will have to hit the road in the post-season.

In the bad loss to the Bills, Dallas only gained 195 total yards, gave up 351 yards, and committed the game’s only turnover. Dak Prescott only passed for 134 yards with no TD and an INT, Tony Pollard rushed for 52 yards, and CeeDee Lamb led the way with 53 receiving yards.

The 10 points scored in the loss to Buffalo tied Dallas’ season low. Still, they are the second highest scoring team in the league (30.8 ppg) and rank sixth in the league in passing yards per game and 12th in rushing yards per game.

Even with the poor game against Buffalo, Prescott (3,639 yards 28 TD 7 INT) is still in the MVP race. He had 11 TD and no picks in four games before the no TD one INT performance in the last game. Lamb (1,036 yards 8 TD) ranks third in the league in receiving yards and had a TD catch in five games in a row before the last game.

Prescott and company will be facing a Miami defense that ranks 14th in points against (21 ppg), 10th against the pass, and fourth against the run.

Tough Road

While the Dolphins have a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East they lost to them earlier in the season and face them in the finale. Oh yeah, they also have to face the AFC’s top team in the Baltimore Ravens on the road in their next game.

In the shutout win over the Jets they dominated from the get-go and had 290 total yards, only gave up 103 yards, and forced four turnovers while not committing any. Tua Tagovailoa passed for 224 yards with a TD, Raheem Mostert had 42 rushing yards and two TD, and Jaylen Waddle had 142 receiving yards with a score.

Miami is the highest scoring team in the NFL (31.5 ppg) and ranks first in passing yards per game and fourth in rushing yards per game.

Star WR Tyreek Hill (1,542 yards 12 TD) missed the last game and is listed as questionable to face the Cowboys with an ankle injury. Mostert (966 yards 18 TD) has the third most rushing yards in the NFL and is also listed as questionable being banged up in the last game.

Tagovailoa (3,921 yards 25 TD 10 INT) leads the league in passing yards, ranks 11th in QBR, and only has one TD but no picks in the last two games.

Tua and the Miami offense will be facing a Dallas defense that ranks fifth in the league in points against (18.9 ppg), fourth against the pass, and 19th against the run.

Betting Trends

The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.

The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games facing a team with a winning record.

The Cowboys have an Under record of 8-3 in their last 11 road games.

The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.

The Dolphins are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.

The Dolphins have an Over record of 5-1 in Dolphins last six games following a win of more than 14 points.

Here are the results of our model run using 3 different time frame parameters. Full season, last 4 games and last 7 games.

Dallas                    51.0          29           
Miami                     -1.5          25 full season
  
Dallas                    51.0          32           
Miami                     -1.5          22 last 4 games
  
Dallas                    51.0          24           
Miami                     -1.5          24 last 7 games

 

After last weeks debacle, if the Cowboys are to be taken seriously, they’ll go into Miami and come away with a win. A loss here and you can completely disregard Dallas from here forward.

Our Pick – Cowboys +1.5

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