Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings – Week 12 NFL Pick

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bears at vikings pick
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The Vikings had their win streak snapped in their last game and in Monday night action host a Bears team that has lost three of their last four games.

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this NFC North division clash with the total sitting at 43.5. Despite having six wins and the Bears with three, the public has been backing Chicago, as they opened as a 4-point underdog but as of Friday are a 3-point dog.

The Bears fell to 3-8 in their last game in a 31-26 road loss to the Detroit Lions where they were up 12 points in the fourth quarter. They covered as a 7.5-point underdog and they are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games.

The 6-5 Vikings had their five-game win streak snapped in their last game in a 21-20 road loss to the Denver Broncos. Minnesota did cover as a 2.5-point underdog and they have covered the spread in their last six games.

On the season the Bears are 4-5-2 ATS with an O/U record of 7-4 and the Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-8.

A few weeks back in the Windy City the Vikings beat the Bears 19-13.

Defense Falters Late

In their loss to the Lions in their last game the Bears gave up a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter where they gave up 17 points. They lost despite the fact they were only outgained by four yards and forced four turnovers and only committed one.

In the loss to the Lions Justin Fields passed for 169 yards with a TD and rushed for 104 yards and D.J. Moore had 96 receiving yards.

The jury of Fields is still out and the third year QB has passed for 1,370 yards with 12 TD and six INT ranking 23rd in QBR. After four TD in two straight games, he only has one in the last two games but has rushed for 150 yards in them.

The Bears rank 18th in the league in scoring (20.9 ppg) and while ranking fourth in rushing yards per game they only rank 25th in passing yards per game. Their offense will face a Minnesota defense that ranks 15th in the league in scoring D (20.9 ppg), 16th against the pass, and seventh against the run.

Losing Late

In their loss to the Broncos in the last game the Vikings looked primed for a win but gave up the game-winning TD pass with only 1:03 remaining. Turnovers killed them, as they committed three while forcing none and they outgained Denver 385 yards to 295 yards.

In the loss to the Broncos Joshua Dobbs passed for 221 yards with a TD and a pick, Alexander Mattison rushed for 55 yards, and T.J. Hockenson led the way with 55 receiving yards.

Dobbs (2,216 yards 12 TD 6 INT) suffered his first loss in the last game only three games since being the new starting QB and he was not only picked off twice but had three fumbles losing one of them.

Minnesota ranks tied for 11th in the league in scoring (23 ppg) and fourth in passing yards per game but only 28th in rushing yards per game. Still, they can get back on track in this game facing a Chicago D that only ranks 29th in the league in points against (26 ppg and 29th in pass D but second in run D.

Betting Trends

The Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.

The Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record.

The Bears have an Over record of 9-3 in their last 12 road games.

The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.

The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.

The Vikings have an Under record of 7-2 in their last nine games.

 OUR PICK – VIKINGS -3