Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans – Week 12 NFL Pick

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jags vs. texans pick
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The Jaguars are all-alone in first place in the AFC South and look to stay that way if they can avenge an early season home loss to the Texans facing them on the road on Sunday.

The oddsmakers have the visiting Jags as a 1.5-point favorite in this division clash with a total of 47.5 points. The public has really backed Jacksonville in this game, as they opened as a 1-point underdog and as of Friday are a 1.5-point favorite.

The Jags (7-3) have won six of their last seven games and in their last one they were at home and laid a 34-14 beat down on the Tennessee Titans. They covered as a 6.5-point favorite and have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.

The Texans moved to 6-4 in their last game with their third win in a row beating the Arizona Cardinals at home 21-16. They failed to cover the spread as a 5.5-point favorite and have not covered in three of their last four games.

On the season the Jags are 7-3 ATS with an O/U record of 5-5 and the Texans are 5-5 ATS with an O/U record of 4-6.

Early in the season in Jax the Texans beat the Jags 37-17.

Get Back to Defense

On the season the Jags rank a legit tied for 11th in the league giving up an average of 20.4 ppg but in the loss to the Texans earlier this season they gave up a season high 37 points.

In their blowout win over the Titans the Jags outgained them 389 yards to 235 yards and forced two turnovers while not committing any. Trevor Lawrence passed for 262 yards with two TD and no picks, Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 52 yards, and Calvin Ridley had 102 receiving yards.

Jax ranks tied for 11th in points per game, 15th in passing yards per game, and 17th in rushing yards per game.

Lawrence (2,282 yards 11 TD 6 INT) ranks 12th in the league in QBR and has three TD and three INT over the last three games. He and the Jags’ offense will be facing a Houston defense that ranks 14th in the league in points against (20.8 ppg), 25th against the pass, and eighth against the run.

Houston Escapes with W

In the win over the Cardinals in the last game the Texans got the win despite three INT from rookie QB C.J. Stroud. They outgained the Cardinals by 100 yards (419-319) and they forced two turnovers and held Arizona to 3-10 on third down.

In the Cardinals’ game Stroud did pass for 336 yards and two TD, Devin Singletary rushed for 112 yards and a score, and Tank Dell had a big game with 149 receiving yards and a TD.

On the season the Texans rank 10th in the league in scoring (23.8 ppg) and while ranking second in passing yards per game only rank 24th in rushing yards per game.

Stroud (2,962 yards 17 TD 5 INT) ranks 11th in the NFL in QBR and four of his picks on the season have come in the last two games. The Texans have found more balance in the last two games with Singletary rushing for 262 of his 471 yards on the season in them.

Houston will be up against a Jax defense that ranks tied for 11th in the league (20.4 ppg) but only 29th against the pass and fourth against the run.

Betting Trends

The Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

The Jags are 9-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Jags have an Under record of 5-2 in their last seven road games.

The Texas are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

The Texans have an Under record of 5-2 in their last seven games.

OUR PICK – TEXANS +2

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