Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens – Week 11 Pick

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The Ravens host the Bengals in a Thursday night AFC North clash between two teams that had their winning streaks snapped in their last game.

The Ravens are a 3.5-point betting favorite in this division matchup with a total of 46. The public has backed the Bengals so far, as they opened as a 4-point underdog and are a 3.5-point dog as of Tuesday.

The Bengals (5-4) had won four in a row before a 30-27 home loss to the Houston Texans in their last game. Cincy failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite and they had covered the spread in their previous four games.

The Ravens also had their four-game winning streak snapped in their last game, which was a 33-31 home loss to the Cleveland Browns. They failed to cover the spread as a 6-point favorite and they have failed to cover in three of the last five games.

On the season the Bengals are 4-4-1 ATS with an O/U record of 4-5 and the Ravens are 6-4 ATS with an O/U record of 4-6.

These teams met in the second game of the season in Cincinnati where the Ravens beat the Bengals 27-24.

Can’t Make the Big Stop

In the 30-27 loss to the Texans the Bengals tied the game with 1:33 remaining but could not stop Houston, who marched down the field and won on a last-second field goal. While the Bengals forced three turnovers, they committed two, were outgained 544 yards to 380 yards, and only rushed for 66 yards.

In the loss to the Texans Joe Burrow passed for 347 yards with two TD and two INT, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Bowd combined for 241 receiving yards, and Joe Mixon led the way with 46 rushing yards.

On offense the Bengals rank 20th in the league in scoring (20.2 ppg), 16th in passing yards per game, and dead last in rushing yards per game.

Joe Burrow (2,208 14 TD 6 INT) only ranks 18th in the league in QBR and in the two games before the last one had five TD and no picks. Mixon (536 yards 4 TD) has not rushed for over 46 yards in three of the last four games including the last two. Chase (821 yards 5 TD) ranks seventh in the NFL in receiving yards.

Burrow and company will be facing a Baltimore defense that ranks first in points against (15.7 ppg), fourth against the pass, and 11th against the run.

Not Playing to the Strength

While the Ravens rank first in the NFL in points against, they gave up a season high 33 points in the loss to the Browns. Like the Bengals the Ravens lost on a last-season field goal and for the game were outgained 373 yards to 306 yards and gave up 178 rushing yards.

In the Cleveland loss Lamar Jackson passed for 223 yards with a TD and two INT and led the team with 41 rushing yards. Zay Flowers led the way with 73 receiving yards.

On the offensive side of the ball the Ravens rank fifth in scoring (27 ppg), first in rushing yards per game, and 20th in passing yards per game.

Jackson (2,177 yards 10 TD 5 INT) ranks 12th in the league in QBR and was not picked off in three games before two INT in the last one. He is also second on Baltimore with 481 rushing yards and five TD.

Gus Edwards (502 yards 8 TD) had rushed for 132 yards and five TD in two games before only rushing for 24 yards on 11 carries with one TD in the last game. WR Flowers and TE Mark Andrews have combined for 1,066 receiving yards and seven TD.

The Ravens will be facing a Cincy defense that ranks tied for 16th in points against (21.3 ppg), 25th against the pass, and 30th against the run.

Betting Trends

The Bengals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.

The Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games facing teams from the AFC North.

The Bengals have an Under record of 14-5-1 in their last 20 road games.

The Ravens are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games facing a team with a winning record.

The Ravens have an Under record of 17-8 in their last 25 games.


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