Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos – Week 11 Pick

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In a Sunday night non-conference affair between a couple of hot teams the Minnesota Vikings play host to the Denver Broncos.

The oddsmakers have the hometown Broncos as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5. The public has been betting this game even, so far, as Denver opened as a 2.5-point favorite and that is still the line as of Thursday.

The Vikings have won three in a row and in their last game moved to 6-4 with a 27-19 home win over the New Orleans Saints. They covered as a 3-point underdog and they have covered the spread in their last five games.

The Broncos are now only one game under .500 (4-5) after also winning their third in a row in their last game in a 24-22 road win over the Buffalo Bills. Denver covered the spread as a 7.5-point underdog and they have covered in their last three games.

On the season the Vikings are 6-3-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-7 and the Broncos are 3-5-1 ATS with an O/U record of 4-5.

These teams have not met since the 2019 season.

New Guy is Unbeaten

After Kirk Cousins was lost for the season, the Vikings went out and got Joshua Dobbs, who was jettisoned by the Arizona Cardinals, and he has won his first two starts for his new team.

In the win over the Saints in the last game the Vikings outgained them 388 yards to 280 yards, held them to 65 rushing yards, and forced two turnovers and did not commit any. Dobbs passed for 268 yards with a TD and rushed for 44 yards and TE T.J. Hockenson had a big game with 134 receiving yards and a score.

On the season Minnesota ranks 12th in the league in scoring (23.3 ppg), third in passing yards per game, and 29th in rushing yards per game.

Lead rusher Alexander Mattison (461 yards 0 TD) only had 27 rushing yards in the last game and is listed as questionable to face the Broncos. The Vikings’ offense has still gotten it done even though they are still without star WR Justin Jefferson, who is on IR.

In his two starts for the Vikings Dobbs has passed for 426 yards with three TD and no picks and has rushed for 110 yards with two TD.

The Vikings’ offensive until will be facing a Broncos’ defense that ranks dead last in points against (27.6 ppg), 23rd against the pass, and last against the run. However, in last four games Denver has given up an average of 20.5 ppg.

A Little Luck Never Hurts

It looked as if the Broncos would have their win streak snapped in their last game with their kicker missing a last season field goal, but the Bills had 12 men on the field and after the penalty the kicker hit the game-winner.

In the win over Buffalo the Broncos were outgained 369 yards to 300 yards and they gave up 192 rushing yards but they forced four turnovers and only committed one. Russell Wilson passed for 193 yards with two TD and no picks, Javonte Williams rushed for 79 yards, and Courtland Sutton led the way with 53 receiving yards and a score.

On the season Denver ranks tied for 15th in scoring (21.8 ppg), 28th in passing yards per game, and 12th in rushing yards per game.

Wilson (1,806 yards 18 TD 4 INT) still only ranks 19th in QBR but in the last three games has six TD and no INT. He has been sacked 10 times in the last two games and the Vikings rank in the middle of the pack in terms of team sacks.

Williams (436 yards 0 TD) has not averaged over 3.8 yards per carry in the last three games but in those games has rushed for at least 79 yards every time.

Wilson and company will be up against a Minnesota defense that ranks 14th in the NFL in points against (20.9 ppg), 16th in pass defense, and 10th in run defense.

Betting Trends

The Vikings are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games.

The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games facing a team with a losing record.

The Vikings have an Under record of 6-2 in their last eight games.

The Broncos are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.

The Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.

The Broncos have an Under record of 4-0 in their last four games.


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