Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills – Week 10 NFL Pick

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Broncos at Bills Pick
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The Buffalo Bills have lost two of their last three games and in a Monday night AFC clash play host the Denver Broncos, who have won two in a row.

The oddsmakers have the Bills as a 7-point favorite with the total sitting at 46.5. The public has been backing the Broncos, as they opened as a 7.5-point underdog and are a 7-point dog as of Friday.

The 3-5 Broncos are coming off a bye week and had their biggest win of the season in their last game in a 24-9 home win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver covered the spread as a 7-point underdog and they have covered in their last two games after failing to cover in their first six games.

The Bills fell to 5-4 in their last game with a 24-18 road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. They failed to cover as a 1.5-point underdog and they have not covered the spread in their last five games.

On the season the Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS with an O/U record of 4-4 and the Bills are 3-6 ATS with an O/U record of 3-6.

These teams have not met since the 2020 season.

The Streak is Over!

The Broncos had lost 16 in a row to the Chiefs before beating them in their last game. Denver was outgained 274 yards to 240 yards but rushed for 153 yards, held KC to only 62 rushing yards, and they forced five turnovers while only committing one.

In the big win over the Chiefs Russell Wilson only passed for 114 yards but had three TD and no picks, Javonte Williams rushed for 85 yards, and Jerry Jeudy led the team with 50 receiving yards and a TD.

On the season the Broncos rank in the middle of the pack (16th) in scoring (21.5 ppg), 27th in passing yards per game, and 11th in rushing yards per game.

Wilson (1.613 yards 16 TD 4 INT) only ranks 21st in the league in QBR and while he has four TD and no INT in the last two games, he was sacked six times in the last game and has been sacked at least four times in three of the last four games.

Three players have at least 201 rushing yards led by Williams (357 yards 0 T, who has at least 82 yards in the last two games while in the previous five his high was 52 yards. Courtland Sutton and Jeudy have combined for 716 receiving yards and seven TD.

Wilson and company will be facing a Buffalo defense that ranks fifth in the league in points against (17.8 ppg), 14th against the pass, and 18th against the run.

Offensive Issues

After scoring at least 37 points in three straight games, all wins, the Bills have only averaged 20.2 ppg over the last five games where they have three losses. In the loss to the Bengals in their last game they were outgained 397 yards to 317 yards, only rushed for 68 yards, and had two turnovers while not forcing any.

In the loss to Cincy Josh Allen passed for 258 yards with a TD and an INT and led the team with 44 rushing yards. Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid each had at least 81 receiving yards.

On the season the Bills rank fifth in the league in scoring (26.7 ppg), fifth in passing yards per game, and 16th in rushing yards per game.

Allen (2,423 yards 18 TD 9 INT) still ranks first in the league in QB but is dealing with a throwing shoulder injury and has been picked off once in each of the last five games.

James Cook leads the team with 506 rushing yards and was ok for three games before only rushing for 20 yards in the last game. Diggs (834 yards 7 TD) ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards and has not topped 86 yards after four straight games with 100+ yards.

Buffalo will be going up against a Denver D that played well last week but still ranks dead last in the league giving up and average of 28.3 ppg. They only rank 26th in the league defending the pass and last defending the run.

Betting Trends

The Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games.

The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.

The Broncos have an Over record of 4-1 in their last five road games.

The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last five home games.

The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

The Bills have an Under record of 4-1 in their last five games.

Our Pick – Bills -7