New Orleans Saints vs. L.A. Rams – Week 16 NFL Pick

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saints at rams pick
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In a huge NFL Thursday night matchup between two teams still in the playoff race the L.A. Rams play host to the New Orleans Saints.

The oddsmakers have the Rams as a 4-point favorite with a total of 44.5. So far, the public has been backing the Saints, as they opened as a 4.5-point underdog and as of Tuesday are a 4-point dog.

The Saints won their second in a row and moved to 7-7 with a 24-6 home win over the New York Giants in their last game. They covered the spread as a 6.5-point favorite and have covered in their last two games after failing to do so in their previous four games.

The Rams also moved to the .500 mark at 7-7 in their last game with a 28-20 home win over the Washington Commanders. They covered as a 6.5-point favorite and they have covered the spread in their last four games.

On the season the Saints are 4-9-1 ATS with an O/U record of 4-10 and the Rams are 8-5-1 ATS with an O/U record of 6-8.

These teams met last season in the Big Easy where the Saints beat the Rams 27-20.

Six Again

Ok, so the Saints were playing two of the weaker teams and offenses in their last two games but they only gave up six points in each. In the 24-6 win over the Giants, they outgained them 296 yards to 193 yards and they were 6-12 on third down while New York was only 2-16 on third down.

In the New York win Derek Carr passed for 218 yards with three TD and no INT and Alvin Kamara rushed for 66 yards and also led the team with 44 receiving yards.

The Saints rank tied for 12th in the league in scoring (22.1 ppg), 14th in passing yards per game, and 19th in rushing yards per game.

Carr (3,098 yards 16 TD 7 INT) ranks 21st in the league in QBR and has five TD and only one pick in the last two games. Kamara (630 yards 5 TD 446 receiving yards 1 TD) has rushed for at least 51 yards in each of the last four games. Chris Olave (918 yards 4 TD) missed the last game with an injury and is listed as questionable to face the Rams.

Carr and the New Orleans’ offense will be facing a Rams’ defense that ranks 19th in the league in points against (22.1 ppg), 21st against the pass, and 14th against the run.

Climbing Back in the Race

The Rams were given up for dead after a three-game losing streak dropped them to 3-6 but they have won four of their last five games to get back in the playoff race. Actually, if the playoffs started today, they would have the last NFC Wild Card.

In their 28-20 win over the Commanders in their last game they had two turnovers and only forced one but outgained Washington 445 yards to 297 yards and rushed for 196 yards.

In the Commanders game Matt Stafford passed for 258 yards with two TD and no INT, Kyren Williams had a big game rushing for 152 yards and a TD, and Cooper Kupp had 111 receiving yards and a score.

L.A. ranks ninth in the league in scoring (23.4 ppg) and 11th in both passing and rushing yards per game.

Stafford (3,320 yards 21 TD 9 INT) has quietly put together a solid season, ranks seventh in the league in QBR, and has eight TD and no picks in the last three games. Williams (953 yards 8 TD) has rushed for at least 114 yards in four of the last five games and at least 143 yards in three of the last five games. Puka Nacua (1,163 yards 4 TD) ranks sixth in the NFL in receiving yards and Kupp has at least 111 yards in each of the last two games.

The Rams will face a Saints’ defense that ranks sixth in the league in points against (19.1 ppg), sixth against the pass, and 24th against the run.

Betting Trends

The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.

The Saints are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

The Saints have an Under record of 10-2 in their last 12 road games.

The Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.

The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.

The Rams have an Under record of 5-1 in their last six home games.

Here are the results of our model run using 3 different time frame parameters. As you can see, all 3 favor the Rams.

New Orleans               44.5          16           
LA Rams                   -4.0          25
  
New Orleans               44.5          18           
LA Rams                   -4.0          32
  
New Orleans               44.5          20           
LA Rams                   -4.0          28
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