Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers – Week 5 NFL Pick

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In the most anticipated game for Week 5 the undefeated 49ers play host to the 3-1 Cowboys in the Sunday night game.

Heading into this big NFC clash the 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 45 at betonline. The public has been backing the Cowboys so far, as they opened as a 4.5-point underdog and as of Wednesday morning they are a 3.5-point dog.

America’s Team is coming off an impressive win in their last game where they were at home and crushed the New England Patriots 38-3. They easily covered the spread as a 6.5-point favorite and they have covered in three of their four games.

The 49ers remained in the ranks of the unbeaten with a 35-16 home win over the Arizona Cardinals in their last game. San Fran covered the spread as a 14.5-point favorite and, like the Cowboys, are 3-1 ATS on the season.

These teams met in the playoffs last season where at home the 49ers beat the Cowboys 19-12.

Impressive Win after Surprising Loss

The Cowboys got over their surprising loss to the Cardinals dominating the Patriots in their last game. They outgained them 377 yards to 253 yards, forced three turnovers and did not commit any, and only gave up 53 rushing yards.

In the Pats’ win Dak Prescott passed for 261 yards with a TD and no INT, three players had at least 53 receiving yards, and the team rushed for 124 yards.

Dallas is the fourth highest scoring team in the league (31 ppg) and ranks seventh in the league in rushing yards per game and 14th in passing yards per game. However, they have had major issues in the Red Zone and even in the blowout win last week they were 1-4 in the Red Zone. They cannot do that in this game, as they have to be efficient in the Red Zone facing a solid 49ers’ defense.

Dak and company will face a San Fran D that ranks 17th in the league against the pass and third against the run.

Two-Headed Monster

Not only do the 49ers have a solid defense but they have a two-headed monster with the QB-RB duo of Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, who are both in the early-season MVP race. McCaffrey may be in the lead in the race leading the league in rushing by a wide margin and Purdy ranks first in the league in QBR and has not thrown an INT in the first four games.

In the win over the Cardinals the 49ers only outgained them 395 yards to 362 yards, but only had five third downs and they averaged 12.3 yards per pass attempt to 6.1 for Arizona.

McCaffrey had four TD and rushed for 105 yards and had 71 receiving yards. He leads the NFL in rushing yards (459) and has 95 more rushing yards then the next leading back. Purdy passed for 283 yards and a TD in the last game and has a QBR of over 111 in three of four games.

WR Brandon Aiyuk (320 yards 2 TD) is averaging 18.8 yards per reception, has at least 129 yards in two of his three games, and had 148 yards in the last game.

The Cowboys’ defense has been dominant in their three wins only allowing 13 points. However, in the one loss to the Cardinals in their game before their last one they gave up 28 points and 400 total yards. Overall, the D ranks second in the league against the pass and 16th against the run, which is a concern facing a San Fran run game that ranks third in the NFL averaging 153.3 rushing yards per game.

While only in his second season Purdy is undefeated in the regular season and the NFC Championship last season is the only loss for San Fran in their last 17 games.

Betting Trends

The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.

The Cowboys have an Under record of 5-1 in their last six games.

The 49ers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games.

The 49ers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.

OUR PICK – 49ERS -3.5

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