Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Week 11 NFL Pick

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In a much-anticipated Monday night rematch of last season’s Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Chiefs are a 2.5-point favorite in this big game with the total sitting at 45.5. The public has been betting this game even, as KC opened as a 2.5-point favorite and that is still the line as of Friday.

The Eagles have won three in a row and at 8-1 they have the best record in the NFL. They are coming off a bye week and in their last game they were at home and beat the Dallas Cowboys 28-23. Philly covered the spread as a 3-point favorite and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games.

The Chiefs are also combining off a bye and moved to 7-2 in their last game with a 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins in a game that was held in Frankfurt, Germany. They covered as a 1-point underdog and they have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

In last season’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35.

On the season the Eagles are 5-2-2 ATS with an O/U record of 5-4 and the Chiefs are 6-3 ATS with an O/U record of 2-7.

Big Time Stop

In their win against the Cowboys the Eagles had the late lead and stopped the Cowboys on the last drive of the game even though Dallas got to the Philly six-yard line. The Eagles were outgained 406 yards to 292 yards but were 50% on third down (7-14) and forced the game’s only turnover.

In the win over Dallas Jalen Hurts passed for 207 yards with two TD and no picks and also rushed for 36 yards, D’Andre Swift only rushed for 43 yards on 18 carries, and A.J. Brown led the way with 66 receiving yards and a score.

On the season Philly ranks tied for third in scoring (28 ppg), 10th in passing yards per game, and eighth in rushing yards per game.

Hurts (2,347 yards 15 TD 8 INT) ranks seventh in QBR and has six TD and no INT in the last two games. Swift (614 yards 3 TD) has not had the best two last games and has failed to rush for over 62 yards in each of the last four games. Brown (1,005 yards 6 TD) ranks second in the league in receiving yards and had at least 127 yards in six straight games before the last one with 66 yards.

Hurts and company will be facing a KC defense that ranks tied for first in points against (15.9 ppg), fifth against the pass, and 17th against the run.

Back in the Win Column

After having their six-game win streak snapped the Chiefs bounced back in their last game with a solid 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins. KC was outgained 292 yards to 267 yards but had a 21-0 halftime lead and were a little lucky when the Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa could not handle the snap on a fourth and 10 from the Chiefs 31-yard line with 1:03 to play.

In the Miami win Patrick Mahomes passed for 185 yards with two TD and no INT, Isiah Pacheco rushed for 66 yards, and four players had at least 22 receiving yards.

Unlike the past few seasons the Chiefs have been led by their top-ranked defense this season, as their offense ranks 13th in the league in scoring (23.1 ppg), fifth in passing yards per game, and 19th in rushing yards per game.

Mahomes (2,442 yards 17 TD 8 INT) ranks second in the league in QBR and had four picks in three games before none in the last one. Pacheco (525 yards 3 TD) has rushed for 106 yards in the last two games and six KC players have over 200 receiving yards led by star TE Travis Kelse (597 yards 4 TD).

The Chiefs will be facing a Philly defense that ranks tied for third in the league in scoring (28 ppg), 10th in passing yards per game, and eighth in rushing yards per game.

Betting Trends

The Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.

The Eagles have an Under record of 17-8 in their last 25 games after a bye week.

The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games facing a team with a winning record.

The Chiefs have an Under record of 5-0 in their last five games.

 OUR PICK – CHIEFS -2.5

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