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Hawaii vs. Colorado

Betting Line Colorado -12.5

3* Key Release

9/18/10

Timing is everything with betting college football. Getting the best number on your wagers is crucial to your long term success which is why we cringe every time we release a game where we are not getting the best number. Such is the case here. We hope we didn't miss the boat here. Colorado opened as a 13.5 point favorite at bookmaker.com, the first sportsbook to post lines each week. The game was bet down to -10 in a matter of minutes. Someone felt they posted a bad number.

But we think the book had it right. This line dropped all the way to as low as -9.5 before it started to climb back. We we're going to release the game at -11 but the game got popped again pushing to -12 and -12.5. At this number, we're still ahead of the opener, but not the best we could have done. Certainly when there is a 10 involved, you want to act. a 10 point win is a push for some and a win for anyone who took the -9.5 while everyone else loses. We hope that's not the case here. We think this game could be a blow out. Here's why.

Colorado has some talent. We know that much. There is just a natural talent gap between these two programs. Hawaii had some good years but those days are long gone. Colorado has the talent but hasn't been able to produce under Dan Hawkins. They are in off a horrendous performance last week, turning the ball over 5 times while getting blown away by Cal 52-7. This is a veteran Colorado team that isn't as bad as they looked last week, giving us some added value.

Dan Hawkins is already in trouble at Colorado. Most agree, the only reason he is still there is because Colorado couldn't afford to buy out his contract. It doesn't get any easier after this game. In fact, this is without a doubt the easiest game left on the Colorado schedule. Losing isn't an option here. Winning the game by a few points or a touchdown also isn't an option. Not if Hawkins wants to keep his job. 

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This is Colorado's first home game of the season. They catch a very poor Hawaii team in off a game they were lucky to win in the closing minute against Army. Hawaii led the game 21-7 in the first half but Army scored 4 unanswered touchdowns to take the lead before Hawaii was able to tie and then kick a winning field goal off an Army fumble. Oh, and Hawaii had a total of 10 yards on the ground.

Hawaii had to fly 5000 miles to play that Army game. They then flew across country again, though didn't go all the way back to Hawaii. They spent the week in Vegas where they practiced this week. Now they have to play Colorado. Altitude will be a factor. Remember, this team tired in the 2nd half last week. Imagine what playing at a mile high will do? They catch a Colorado squad in off an embarrassing loss, with a coach on the hot seat, in their first home game of the year..........it's just a very bad spot for Hawaii. Food for thought. Can you imagine what the line would have been had Colorado played respectably last week? Buily in value as a result of last weeks performance. This one has ROMP written all over it.

For Dan Hawkins case, (and ours) that better be the case. 3* Key Release Colorado -12.5

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