Bowling Green
vs.
Northern Illinois
MAC Football
Championship Pick
12/5/14
For the second straight season, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green meet in the MAC championship Game. This time it’s a bit more surprising with two teams that look a bit different. But much like last year, the Huskies are the favorite at -7 points (opened at -3) as seen at 5 Dimes and sportsbook.ag for the Game at Ford Field in Detroit.
Bowling Green lost its senior starting quarterback Matt Johnson in its first Game of the season in a big 59-31 defeat at Western Kentucky. That immediately killed their hopes at a repeat season, but somehow they managed to make it to the top of the East division. They got an early-season win over Indiana, which might have been the confidence booster needed. The Falcons may have finished with only five Conference wins, many of them close calls, and three losses in their final five Games, but they are here. In their two Games against the West division, BGSU fell to Toledo and Ball State in their final two Games.
Northern Illinois didn’t lose its starting QB to injury, but record breaker Jordan Lynch is no longer on the team and that had to be dealt with. After a road win at Northwestern, this team believed it could win the division again despite the loss of talent. While the Huskies fell to Central Michigan in October, they reeled off six straight Conference wins, including a home Game over Toledo to finalize their spot at the top.
Coming out of the West, Northern Illinois’ route was a bit more impressive. The MAC West has Four teams with a winning record, while the East only has one despite having one more team.
In last year’s matchup, the Bowling Green defense was the difference as well as a balanced attack led by QB Matt Johnson (5 TDs) and RB Travis Greene (133 yards, 1 TD). Needless to say, the Falcons defense has taken a step back this year and allowed more than 32 points per Game.
Northern Illinois brings a similar rush-heavy attack from a season ago with quarterback Drew Hare leading the way. Hare hasn’t been asked to throw much, but he has been safe with the ball, tossing 15 TDs and only one pick on the year. On the ground, Cameron Stingily again leads the backs with 779 yards and 11 TDs on the year, while Hare has rushed for 790 yards and nine TDs. NIU moved the ball well in this matchup last year, but Jordan Lynch’s two interceptions were costly.
Bowling Green is a bit more balanced, but the loss of Matt Johnson has hurt this team throughout the year. James Knapke is just not the same quarterback, throwing for 12 TDs and 10 INTs. Johnson finished with 25 TDs and seven INTs last season. The Falcons still have a solid run Game led by Travis Greene (803 yards, 9 TDs) so that should keep them competitive.
Due to a weaker Bowling Green defense, this probably won’t be the same type of Game from a season ago. This time around, Northern Illinois is the better overall team and undoubtedly have the edge.
The Falcons are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 Games following an ATS loss, but they are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine overall, with eight of those being in the MAC. The Huskies are only 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last Four neutral site Games.
The line move in this Game is certainly understandable. Bowling Green has basically backed into this Game, losing their final 2 Games and 3 of their last 5. Northern Illinois meanwhile, as won 6 straight and is a nice 10-2 on the year. Championship numbers.
Last year we played Bowling Green in this Game as a Key released and cashed a nice ticket. This time around, we don’t have a strong play. In fact, using the numbers we like to use, Our power ratings, Our model and various predictive stats we favor, Bowling Green plus the points is the play. On the other hand, the revenge motive and regular season momentum favor NI. We’re going to go with the revenge and momentum here. It’s rare for a team to be able to have the chance to get revenge for a title Game loss, the very next year. Expect the Huskies to take full advantage of the opportunity. Northern Illinois -6.5