Bowling Green
vs.
Western Kentucky
College Football Pick
8/29/14
Interesting Game between to conferences that are at the bottom of the totem pole when it comes to college football in terms of Conference strength. Bowling Green from the MAC and Western Kentucky from Conference USA will do battle in week 1 with Bowling Green Currently favored by -7.5 points on the road. The total is 61 and these odds are currently the same right across the board at such leading sportsbooks as 5 dimes, gtbets and betonline.
When we handicap a week one Game, we need a starting point. That starting point is last season. Had this Game been played at the end of last season, Our Score Prediction model would have had Bowling Green on top by a score of 30-20.
Bowling Green was solid on both sides of the ball with a yards per point number on offense of 13.2 and a defensive number of 20.3. That 20.3 number was among the best in the nation in terms of defensive yards per point, however, keep in mind the Conference and strength of Schedule.
Western Kentucky’s numbers weren’t as good. Their offensive ypp number was 14.9 and their defensive number was 13.8. With good teams, the defensive number will always be higher than the offensive number. Remember, the higher the number on defense, the better the defense is. The lower the number is on offense, the better the offense is. again we must bring up Schedule strength. Of the 125 or so teams we track and rate, Western Kentucky is all the way at the bottom of that strength of Schedule list. Mediocre numbers with a weak Schedule means the team in general is mediocre at best.
If this Game was last year, we’d either have played Bowling Green -7.5 or we would have passed. But this isn’t last year. There have been some changes for both teams starting with the head coaches. Both squads have new coaches. Western Kentucky hired from within and pegged offensive coordinator and former Louisville QB Jeff Brohm as their new coach while Bowling Green hired Eastern Illinois head man Dino Babers.
Both of these coaches are offensive minded. Babers fast paced offense will make your head spin. Bettors are aware of this as we’ve seen with the total on this Game. The total opened 54.5 and has rocketed all the way up to 61 and likely will move even higher. Makes sense. Both teams lost a significant number of starters from their defense while retaining most of their offense including the starting QB’s. The two offenses should be way ahead of the defenses in this one and both should have success.
There will always be bumps in the road with new coaches. That’s even true when you hire within, as Western Kentucky did. If there’s an edge here in the coaching, it would have to go to Babers simply for having that head coaching experience.
We’re going to take a stab at Western Kentucky here. They should be starting this season with a bit if a chip on their shoulder after going 8-4 last year yet not making a Bowl Game. It’s a Friday night home Game which always brings out the best in the crowd and it’s a Game that figures to be back and forth on the Scoreboard all night. A classic shootout. In that type of a setting, we want to be sitting with the big spot in Our pocket as the Game heads for home. I think Bowling Greens a bit stronger, but all of these factors in week 1 could make this one close. Western Kentucky +7.5