Minnesota
vs.
Nebraska
Big 10
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/22/14
Both of these teams had big Games going into last weekend and both of them failed, maybe one more so than the other. Minnesota battled in their snow-filled loss against Ohio State, while Nebraska lost a 14-point lead and allowed the most rushing yards to one player ever in FBS history. And yet, the Cornhuskers are solid -10.5 point home favorites against the Gophers at sportsbook.ag and 5 dimes.
It was a vaguely similar scenario between these teams last year in Minnesota as the Golden Gophers won 34-23 as a 10.5-point underdog. Their underrated ground Game ate up the Nebraska defense, and the Gophers did just enough on the other end holding the Huskers to 328 total yards.
While Nebraska’s Big Ten title hopes are all but gone, Minnesota still has a slim chance with a Game at Wisconsin next week. Win out, and the Golden Gophers are in the title Game facing off with Ohio State again.
That’s an extreme situation for a team that’s best win up until now is against Michigan or Iowa. Minnesota is 7-3 which deserves some respect, but can they beat two good teams on the road? The last time the Gophers travelled away from home, they lost 28-24 at Illinois.
Surprisingly, it’s almost the same situation for Nebraska, although their best win is a home Game against Miami (FL). In the conference, they have a road win at Northwestern to their name. In two road Games against better competition, the Huskers haven’t really played up to their opponent’s level.
Both teams will attack the ground Game in this one, that’s for sure. David Cobb (1,350 yards, 11 TDs) has been a revelation for this Gophers offense the past two years and is coming off a 145-yard, 3-TD performance against Ohio State. Nebraska doesn’t have a terrible run defense, but they did allow 581 yards last weekend, so there’s that.
Quarterback Mitch Leidner isn’t asked to do much, mainly because he can’t do much. Down for most of the Game against the Buckeyes, he went 7-of-19 and threw two interceptions. Minnesota cannot get down by a lot in this Game, or that could happen again.
Nebraska’s dynamic offense did pretty much nothing against the Badgers. Neither QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. nor RB Ameer Abdullah could get anything going on the ground. And that was in addition to Armstrong Jr. tossing for only 62 yards and one interception.
Like much of the country this weekend, it’s going to be chilly which will only enhance the ground Games for both of these teams.
The Gophers defense was the difference in last year’s Game and will look to do the same. Abdullah has been great at times against weaker defense, but struggles against high-end ones. He could be the difference for this Game.
After such a disheartening loss by Nebraska last weekend, it’ll be interesting to see how they come out here with their title Game hopes dashed.
The Golden Gophers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Conference Games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cornhuskers are a solid 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Games following an ATS loss.
These two have identical yards per point numbers of 11.8 on offense and 15.7 on defense. This is significant because these two also have a nearly identical strength of Schedule. This means that on a neutral field, flip a coin. With the Game in Nebraska, add whatever Nebraska’s home field edge is, and there’s your line. Now, unless you’re going to give Nebraska a 10 point home field edge, that suggest there’s some nice value with the Gophers here.
Our model agrees, though not as strongly as it likes Nebraska to win the Game by an average of 8 points. The Cornhuskers are looking for a little revenge for last years loss to the Gophers but this line is likely this high as a result of these teams historical performances rather than the quality of their 2014 teams. We’re going to go ahead and grab the +10.5 points in this one. This is being written on Wednesday morning and we’d expect this line to dip under +10 by Game day. Minnesota +10.5