Nebraska
vs.
Wisconsin
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/15/14
Even after the Ohio State-Michigan State Game this past weekend, the Big Ten is still a mess on a national scale, maybe even more so. With three teams sitting at 4-1 in the West division, things are wide open on that side of the conference. Playing at home, the Badgers opened as -6 point favorites over the Cornhuskers at 5 dimes and sportsbook.ag.
Nebraska ranks in the Top 20 in both offense and defense, but the only ranked team they’ve play so far was at Michigan State. While the 27-22 Scorelooks respectable, they were down big until late. Their best win on the year was against Miami (FL), but Conference wise, it was probably at Northwestern 38-17.
Wisconsin is kind of in the same boat after losing their season opener to LSU 28-24, in a Game the Badgers should have won. A loss at Northwestern doesn’t look good as their best win right now is against Maryland.
It’s two teams that haven’t really been tested much this season, due to playing in the Big Ten, and this Game could decide who goes to the Conference championship Game.
Both teams will hit the ground running hard in this Game. Ameer Abdullah and Melvin Gordon have been two of the best running backs in the country this season, but it’s time for them to show up in a big Game.
Abdullah was stuffed against Michigan State for only 45 yards on 1.9 yards per carry. He only had one yard against Purdue a couple weeks ago due to injury, but according to Bo Pelini, he will 100 percent for this Game. Still, Abdullah has an impressive 1,250 yards and 17 TDs for the year. The advantage for the Huskers is Tommy Armstrong Jr. at quarterback. While he’s not a great passer (53% completion), he’s an effective dual-threat QB (571 yards, 4 TDs) that you can’t sleep on.
Wisconsin is also a Top 20 team in both offense and defense, but we can’t really trust those numbers. The Badgers have not been tested yet this season against an offense like Nebraska’s. Abdullah and Armstrong could be a real problem for them.
On the other end, the same can be said about Nebraska’s defense having no real test, although they did put in a respectable performance at Michigan State.
The Badgers struggle in the passing Game which has been the reason for their two losses. Gordon is sitting with a solid 1,501 yards and 19 TDs and his backup Corey Clement has 720 yards and seven TDs, but that can only take you so far. Their quarterbacks are a mess once again with last year’s starter Joel Stave taking over recently. He finally had a respectable Game against Purdue with 219 yards and two TDs, but this defense will be a little tougher.
Nebraska has the edge on offense, but playing at Camp Randall under the lights is never easy. Wisconsin has big wins throughout the years playing at home no matter how good they’ve been.
The Cornhuskers have covered in six straight road Games and are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Badgers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home Games and have similar trends in Big Ten play. This is only the Fourth meeting between these schools, with Wisconsin covering each time, twice as underdogs.
These two have very similar results against common opponents this year for the most part, though an edge goes to Nebraska for having beaten Northwestern 38-17 (Wisky lost) and blowing out Illinois while the Badgers managed just a 10 point win.
Bottom line here is that at 8-1 overall, Nebraska is a very live dog and a huge threat to win this Game straight up on the road. At +6 or better we can’t pass up the Cornhuskers here. Nebraska +6