Texas A&M
vs.
Auburn
College Football
Pick with Analysis
11/8/14
It’s funny to think that Texas A&M was considered one of the best teams in the country after they started 5-0. Now that they’ve played some real competition, things have changed. Auburn, sitting as the No. 3 team in the AP Polls, is a large -21.5 point favorite at home at 5 Dimes and sportsbook.ag.
The Aggies are trying to figure out their season and this Game probably won’t help. While they fought in losses to the two Mississippi schools, they gave up at Alabama losing 59-0, and didn’t show a whole lot last weekend beating UL Monroe 21-16. Even if they do show up in this Game, Auburn could still cover.
The Tigers have their eye on the SEC West title, but they may be looking ahead as they have to travel to Georgia and Alabama in their final two Conference Games. Is it possible Auburn looks past a struggling Texas A&M team? It’s possible, but with the way the Aggies are playing, that may not matter. Auburn already has wins over Kansas State, LSU and Ole Miss this year and will be looking to pad the resume with a big win.
It’s tough to look at last year’s Game between these teams because it was a complete shootout with Auburn winning 45-41 on the road as a 12.5-point underdog. The tides have turned and the Aggies will have Kyle Allen at QB, only the second start of his career. Expecting A&M to keep up with Auburn this year is a mistake.
We saw Allen last week against Louisiana-Monroe, and he wasn’t all that great. Going against the now 3-5 Warhawks, Allen completed less than 50% of his passes for only 106 yards, one TD and one INT. What will he look like against a team like Auburn? The Aggies don’t have an overwhelming ground attack either. Tra Carson and Brandon Williams have led the way as of late, but only have a combined 606 yards on the year.
It’s expected that Auburn will get out to a quick lead as well because Texas A&M doesn’t have a great defense either. If that’s the case, Allen will be forced to pass and after last week it doesn’t look likely that he will be able to keep his team in contention.
Nick Marshall and the Auburn offense just put 35 points on the board on the road against one of the best defenses in the nation in Ole Miss. Led by Marshall, they have one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Cameron Artis-Payne (969 yards, 7 TDs) and Marshall (631 yards, 9 TDs) haven’t really been stopped yet. That only opens up the passing Game where Marshall has been more efficient this year with D’haquille Williams and Sammie Coates on the receiving end.
The Aggies have not covered in five straight Games overall and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road Games. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 Conference Games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home Games.
This Game is a great example of how powerful and helpful Our Score Prediction model can be and that goes for hoops as well as football. Our model has Auburn winning this one by anywhere from 25 to 40 points depending on the parameters we use. This Game opened at -14.5 and is now as high as -22 in spots. 9 out of 10 times lines move in the direction of Our models prediction. So, if you were interested in this Game, you could have been sitting with Auburn -14.5. Or, you could be sitting with a nice middle of -14.5 and +22. Either scenario is a long term winner.
As far as what to do with this Game now, at this current line, you really can’t bet Auburn now. It’s simply not the smart thing to do. In fact, if you bet Auburn at -22, you’ll be immediately put in the sportsbooks “square” file and will become one of their favorite customers, regardless of the outcome of this Game.
As a weak lean only, we’ll go over the total of 66.