West Virginia
vs.
Texas
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/8/14
West Virginia was inches away from destroying TCU’s College Football Playoff hopes and moving into the Top 15 themselves. Instead, the Mountaineers sit at 6-3 with three losses to three Top 15 teams. Before having a shot at Kansas State in a few weeks, they’ll travel to Texas where they are -3.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes and sportsbook.ag
When these teams played last year it was a much different situation when the Longhorns won 47-40 at WVU. For starters, Texas had a different coach and completely different style of team. As for West Virginia, they were one of the worst teams in the Big 12 last year.
This is a new year for the Mountaineers with big wins over Baylor and at Oklahoma State. But they also have close wins over Maryland and Texas Tech. If they don’t play well here, a loss isn’t out of the question and then they get Kansas State. WVU has looked like a legit team lately, but a slip-up or two could see them with five losses.
As for the Longhorns, they’d be happy with five losses on the season since they are 4-5 right now. Their three Big 12 wins are against the three worst teams in the conference. They made a Game against Oklahoma losing 31-26, but the offense couldn’t do anything against Baylor and Kansas State.
It’ll be up to the Texas defense to have a chance to win this Game. While they have been stout, the Longhorns have had some interesting Games this year, like when they gave up 45 points to Iowa State.
West Virginia has one of the best passing offenses around led by quarterback Clint Trickett and receivers Kevin White (1,075 yards, eight TDs) and Mario Alford (679 yards, seven TDs). However, one of the main reasons this offense has succeeded is because of the running Game that churns out yards behind Rushel Shell (538 yards, six TDs) and Wendell Smallwood.
If WVU can get the ground Game going here, which Baylor did against Texas, the advantage goes to the Mountaineers, especially if that opens things up for Trickett.
On the other end, WVU has a somewhat underrated defense, holding Baylor and TCU mostly in check (for their standards).
Texas quarterback Tyrone Swoopes hasn’t improved all that much on the year as he’s completing less than 60% of his passes to go with just nine TDs and five INTs. They live by the running Game on offense behind Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray. In last week’s win at Texas Tech, the Longhorns rushed for 241 yards.
Texas is still looking for that big win on the year, while West Virginia is hoping to stay in the Top 25 by season’s end.
The Mountaineers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road Games vs. a team with a losing home record, but only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Conference Games. The Longhorns have not covered in five straight Games following a straight-up win and are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Neither of these teams is on Our radar as teams we’d like to invest in. Texas has been too inconsistent and has burned us one too many times. West Virginia’s big red flag is their -12 turnover differential number, one of the worst in the nation. You just can’t trust a team that turns the ball over like that with your money.
That being said, simple common sense tells us that West Virginia is the better team here. The played within 10 points of Alabama and within 12 of Oklahoma. They beat Baylor and almost knocked off TCU. Providing they aren’t emotionally drained after last week, they should get this one against the Long Horns. This might be a good one to watch the line on as the Texas money is likely to come in late and drop this line to under a field goal. We’ll take West Virginia at -3 or better.