The Maryland Terrapins (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten, 3-3 ATS) host the Indiana Hoosiers (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten, 4-2 ATS) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Hoosiers opened as three point favorites, but the line has moved all the way up to 5-½ points.
The total opened at 56-½ points, but has moved to 59 at most sportsbooks. These teams met one year ago in what turned out to be a 34-32 win for Indiana.
What happened last week?
Last week wasn’t so kind to Maryland. They were -4.5 favorites against Purdue, but got blasted 40-14. That’s an embarrassing loss. QB Tyrell Pigrome was ineffective through the air, completing 21 of 39 passes for 218 yards, zero TDs and two INTs.
He had some success running the ball, producing 107 yards and 1 TD on 13 carries. He had a long run of 61 yards. Maryland needs to regroup and fast.
Indiana took care of business, beating a very bad Rutgers team 35-0. Freshman QB Michael Penix Jr. delivered a senior-like performance, passing for 282 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Sophomore RB Stevie Scott III also played well, carrying the ball 12 times for 164 yards.
The Hoosiers are cruising right now, but must be wary of a desperate Maryland team trying to keep their season alive.
Stats that leap off the page
Both of these teams are heavily penalized. The Terrapins, for their part, are racking up seven penalties for 61 yards per game. The Hoosiers are marginally better, garnering six flags for 58 yards per game. Winning football games is hard enough, but even harder when you’re giving up field position due to stupid mistakes.
Maryland has lost three of their last four games against the spread. Indiana has won three of their last four games against the spread. That isn’t enough data to call it a trend, but it certainly seems like the Hoosiers are going the right direction and Maryland is going the wrong direction.
Do or Die for Maryland
Bowl eligibility is important not only from a pride perspective, but also from a financial one. Missing out on a bowl game means missing out on a lot of money. Maryland is three games away from becoming eligible. Why is this week so important?
There are six games remaining in the season and three of them are at Ohio State, at Michigan State and at Minnesota. Their chances of winning even one of those games are slim to none.
That means they must sweep the other three, beating Indiana, Nebraska and Michigan. That’s a tall order in and of itself. One thing is for sure. If they drop this weeks game to Indiana they aren’t going to a Bowl game this year.
Expect the crowd to be raucous and the playbook to be wide open. The coaching staff is going to throw the kitchen sink at Indiana in their attempt to win this one. But will that be enough? Do they have the horses? We’re going to find out.
Our pick – Maryland +5.5