SMU football is listed at over or under 6 total wins at 5 dimes sportsbook for the 2019 season with balanced action on both sides of the prop.
SMU mostly disappointed in Sonny Dykes’s first full season as head coach, finishing at 5-7 after making a bowl the previous year. The biggest head scratcher was that his Air Raid didn’t work, as the offense got worse, averaging 30.4 points per game.
With decent pieces returning on both sides of the ball, the Mustangs are looking at a return to a bowl. But how big of a Bowl?
Offensive Line is Key to Success (or failure)
Texas transfer Shane Buechele is likely the new starting quarterback, though last year’s backup William Brown is still in the running after showing some promise in limited time.
Buechele is a high-level recruit that had some success with the Longhorns, but eventually lost the competition.
Whoever starts will have a nice set of receivers to work with led by James Proche (1,199 yards, 12 TDs), Reggie Roberson (802 yards, 6 TDs) and tight end Ryan Becker.
The question is what the line can do after being a main reason for last year’s struggles and it doesn’t help that they return just two starters. The hope is that the sophomores can improve and a couple incoming transfers will add depth.
SMU averaged 3.5 yards per carry last year (sacks included) and that could be a problem again if the line doesn’t progress forward. No matter, running backs Ke’Mon Freeman (339 yards) and Xavier Jones (311 yards) should both see an uptick in carries.
Defense has Plenty of Experience
Oddly, the defense was the stronger side of the ball last year for the Mustangs even if they allowed 35.3 points per contest. After dealing with a lack of returning starters and injuries in 2018, coordinator Kevin Kane has a decent set of tools to work with.
The line is stocked with seniors led by Demerick Gary, while playmaking linebacker Richard Moore leads a corps filled with upperclassmen.
The secondary lost its standout corner, but there’s loads of seniority to go around, including safeties Patrick Nelson and Rodney Clemons.
This defense was unsurprisingly inconsistent last year and with a good set of returning starters that may no longer be a problem.
Looks Like 6 Wins and a Minor Bowl
Given that defensive improvement, it’s hard to see SMU not making a bowl. The big thing will be for the Mustangs to get past North Texas and Texas State because their two non-conference road games are likely losses.
Back-to-back trips to Houston and Memphis is an unlucky part to the schedule, but otherwise, their AAC schedule is mostly favorable as they avoid UCF and Cincy from the East.
In fact, the Mustangs should win all six of their home games given the opponents. If that happens, seven wins are definitely on the table with a couple opportunities for upsets.
Unknowns on the offensive line could lead to more struggles on that front, but a better defense should be enough for six wins with the Air Raid.
2019 SMU Mustangs Football Schedule
Aug. 31 at Arkansas State (opened +3)
Sept. 7 vs. North Texas
Sept. 14 vs. Texas State
Sept. 21 at TCU
Sept. 28 at South Florida
Oct. 5 vs. Tulsa
Oct. 19 vs. Temple
Oct. 24 at Houston (opened +7.5)
Nov. 2 at Memphis (opened +9.5)
Nov. 9 vs. East Carolina
Nov. 23 at Navy
Nov. 30 vs. Tulane