Florida at Texas A&M Free College Football Pick ATS – 10/10/20

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Texas A&M College Football
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Texas A&M is one of six 1-1 teams in the SEC West but it may be the hardest to get a read on. It struggled past Vandy in the opener and then got trampled by Alabama last week.

Unfortunately for the Aggies, they now face one of the best teams in the East in Florida, who opened as -7 point road favorites with an over/under of 57.5 at betanysports.

Trask Heisman Candidate

Florida quarterback Kyle Trask has firmly put his foot in the Heisman discussion after carving up Ole Miss and South Carolina the last two weeks. In addition to averaging 9.6 yards per pass, he has 10 touchdowns and is completing more than 70% of his passes.

It’s been a similar start to the season to what Joe Burrow did at LSU last year. Of course, Trask hasn’t exactly played a top defense yet and that may still be the case after this contest. A&M’s run defense held up last week against Alabama, but it allowed 435 passing yards and 52 points on a ridiculous 16.1 yards per pass.

Trask may not have the same kind of talent around him as Burrow did, but Kyle Pitts has been excellent with 227 yards and six touchdowns, while Kadarius Toney has been more of a utility option with 11 receptions.

Gator Ground Game Needs Work

The ground game hasn’t been explosive for the Gators, but Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis are both over five yards per carry, which is enough when combined with Trask. As long as Trask can stay clean in the pocket, he could be set for another big outing against A&M.

Covering this game will fall to the other side of the ball because things haven’t gone as well as expected for Kellen Mond in his senior season. He hasn’t looked much improved, averaging 7.0 yards per pass and completing less than 60% of them.

Even though A&M wasn’t completely dominated by Alabama, it still managed just 24 points, which probably won’t cut it in this matchup, either. Mond should again move the ball mainly because the ground game has been superb with Isaiah Spiller averaging 7.5 yards per carry and Ainias Smith going for 80 rushing yards and 150 receiving yards. 

It’s been hard to evaluate the Florida defense, also somewhat similar to LSU last season. With its offense tearing apart opposing defenses, the Gators haven’t really needed to go full out on that end, allowing 21 fourth-quarter points through two games.

There’s a chance Florida’s defense, which gave up 14.4 points per game last year, is on that same level this season.

The Gators look set for a huge season and while on the road, they’ll be easier to back given how Trask has looked through two games. As for the Aggies, they’ll need to figure things out fast on both sides of the ball, though this matchup is unlikely to help. 

Our Pick

Interesting spot for both teams just two games into the 2020 season. These two last met in 2017 with A&M winning a 2 point decision, 19-17.

The majority of the tickets being written on this game as of Wednesday are for the Gators. However, the line has moved from 7 down to -6.5 at most books as more money has been wagered on A&M.

We’re going to go against the majority here and side with the money. MyBookie is still showing +7 so we’ll go ahead and grab it.

Texas A&M +7