North Carolina at Georgia Tech – College Football – 9/25/21

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north carolina at georgia tech pick
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North Carolina at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech returns home this week to take on North Carolina as two teams from the ACC Coastal division hook up. North Carolina is favored by 12 on the road with a total of 63. Kickoff is 7:30 PM EST and the game can be seen on the ACC Network.

It’s tough to get a read on Georgia Tech in the early going of 2021. They dropped their first game to Northern Illinois 21-20. They followed that up by blowing out Kennesaw State, as they should have. Then last week they were stopped on the 1 yard line with 15 seconds to go, losing to Clemson 14-8.

It’s worth noting that the Clemson game was delayed by lightening. It was a lengthy delay so who knows what impact that had on both teams.

North Carolina stumbled out of the gate with their high powered offense scoring just 10 points against Virginia Tech in a 17-10 loss.  But it looks like the Tar Heels are back on track as they scored 59 points in each of their games the past two weeks.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
10/ 5/2019  North Carolina           38  -10.0  at Georgia Tech             22
11/ 3/2018  Georgia Tech             38  - 4.0  at North Carolina           28
 9/30/2017  North Carolina            7  +10.0  at Georgia Tech             33
11/ 5/2016  Georgia Tech             20  +12.5  at North Carolina           48
10/ 3/2015  North Carolina           38  + 6.5  at Georgia Tech             31
10/18/2014  Georgia Tech             43  - 1.0  at North Carolina           48
 9/21/2013  North Carolina           20  + 6.5  at Georgia Tech             28
11/10/2012  Georgia Tech             68  + 8.0  at North Carolina           50
 9/24/2011  North Carolina           28  + 6.5  at Georgia Tech             35
 9/18/2010  Georgia Tech             30  + 2.5  at North Carolina           24
 9/26/2009  North Carolina            7  + 3.0  at Georgia Tech             24
11/ 8/2008  Georgia Tech              7  + 4.0  at North Carolina           28
11/17/2007  North Carolina           25  +10.0  at Georgia Tech             27
11/11/2006  Georgia Tech              7  -13.5  at North Carolina            0
 9/10/2005  North Carolina           21  +12.5  at Georgia Tech             27
 9/18/2004  Georgia Tech             13  - 8.0  at North Carolina           34
11/15/2003  North Carolina           24  +10.5  at Georgia Tech             41
 9/28/2002  Georgia Tech             21  + 0.0  at North Carolina           13
11/ 1/2001  North Carolina           21  + 5.5  at Georgia Tech             28
 9/30/2000  Georgia Tech             42  + 3.0  at North Carolina           28
10/ 9/1999  North Carolina           24  +17.0  at Georgia Tech             31
 9/26/1998  Georgia Tech             43  + 4.5  at North Carolina           21
10/30/1997  North Carolina           16  - 9.0  at Georgia Tech             13
 9/21/1996  Georgia Tech              0  +11.5  at North Carolina           16
10/14/1995  North Carolina           25  - 2.5  at Georgia Tech             27
10/ 8/1994  Georgia Tech             24  +14.0  at North Carolina           31
10/16/1993  North Carolina           41  - 3.5  at Georgia Tech              3
10/24/1992  Georgia Tech             14  + 3.5  at North Carolina           26
10/26/1991  North Carolina           14  +10.5  at Georgia Tech             35
10/20/1990  Georgia Tech             13  -13.0  at North Carolina           13
  
   average outcome:
     North Carolina          25.2  Georgia Tech            26.3
     margin =   1.03
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     North Carolina          31.8  Georgia Tech            30.6
     margin =  -1.27
  
   average result when the home team is Georgia Tech           
     North Carolina          23.3  Georgia Tech            27.0
     margin =   3.73
  
   average result when the home team is North Carolina         
     Georgia Tech            25.5  North Carolina          27.2
     margin =   1.67
  
    58.33 % of games went Over
    61.54 % went Over at Georgia Tech           
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  51.50
   time-weighted average total   =  62.40
  
   the home team covered  56.67 % of the time
   the road team covered  43.33 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.55
  
   the favorite  covered  48.28 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  51.72 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.84
  
   the favorite won SU    71.43 % of the time
  
   North Carolina          covered  46.67 % of the time
   Georgia Tech            covered  53.33 % of the time
  
   Georgia Tech            covered  60.00 % of the time at home
   Georgia Tech            covered  50.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Also of note here is that this isn’t a true home game for Georgia Tech. The game will not be played on campus. Instead, it will be played at the home of the Atlanta Falcons, Mercedes Benz Stadium. That works in the Tar Heels favor.

It’s hard to imagine Georgia Tech keeping pace with this North Carolina offense that seems to be back on track. Last season Tech had two games where they put points on the board and that was against Duke and Louisville.

Otherwise, the Yellow Jackets had trouble reaching 20 points. Here they run into a North Carolina team that hung 40+ points on the board 7 times last season and twice already in 2021.

We’ll lay it…

North Carolina -12