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Week 1

NFL Pick


The Broncos host the Ravens to get things started in the NFL this year in a Thursday Night game that has the Broncos favored by -7.5 at with a total of 48. This will be a rematch of last seasons playoff game which could very well have been the most exciting NFL game played a year ago. As you likely recall, the Ravens came from behind and tied it with 31 seconds remaining and then won the game in double OT, eliminating the Bronco from the playoffs and going on to win the Super Bowl.

The best advice we can give bettors for this game is to tread lightly. The very first game of any football season is probably responsible for burying more novice bettors than any other single game all year. The novice bettor can't wait to get going. He can taste the money already. Someone probably told him that he should automatically bet against the Super Bowl winner their first time out the following year  or some other nonsense based on historical results.

The experienced bettor knows there will be plenty of opportunities this season to find an edge. No need to jump in right off the bat. Maybe the Ravens haven't lost as much as people think they have? Heck, maybe the +7.5 points is a gift here!

Last year in the playoff game, our score prediction model suggested we take the Ravens as all of the different parameters we used came back with the Ravens covering and even winning straight up. We had a hunch Manning was going to take over the game and the Broncos were going to win going away. We were wrong.

The logical choice in this one is Manning and the Broncos but the feeling here is that the -7.5 is a tad high. Both teams have lost key personnel since last season and neither is 100% healthy. We're not ready to stick a fork in the Ravens just yet and think this could potentially be good close game. No Key Release here, but as an opinion only, we'll take the Ravens +7.5 or more.

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