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Packers

vs.

Cowboys

NFL Pick

12/15/13

The Green Bay Packers (6-6-1, 2-4 away) will meet the Dallas Cowboys (7-6, 5-1 home) at 4:25 ET on Sunday in a game that will have series consequences for the loser. Both teams are in contention for their respective divisions. The winner will stay on track; the loser can pretty much kiss their hopes for postseason play goodbye. Green Bay exits a much needed 22-21 win over Atlanta at Lambeau Field. On the flip side, the Cowboys were trounced 45-28 on Monday Night Football.

Lines on this game are tough to find, but BetOnline has the Cowboys as a 7-point favorite. The hometown team has just one loss at Cowboy Stadium this year; a 51-48 shootout against the Denver Broncos. If you are going to lose, that's not a bad way to do it or a bad team to do it against. Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Dallas. Total information is unavailable at this time. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing at home against Green Bay.

QB Aaron Rodgers could see action for the first time since 11/4 when he injured his collarbone against the Chicago Bears. The Super Bowl winning Rodgers has been sorely missed. The Packers are 1-3-1 without him. If any hope remains for making a playoff run, Rodgers must return and not only return, but do so effectively. Luckily for Green Bay, the Dallas defense is so bad that even backup Matt Flynn can probably give them fits. After all, they allowed Josh McCown to produce five (count 'em!) TDs last week. McCown is not exactly a star and Dallas has repeatedly failed to play good defense all year long.

QB Tony Romo has played well (98.3 RAT, 3,244 YDs, 27 TDs) throughout the year and enters this game on the heels of a 3 TD effort against Chicago. The offense wasn't great, but never really had a chance because the defense played so horribly. They tend to be a little better at home and haven't allowed more than 24 points since their early season loss to the Broncos. The offense has showed a new dimension with the rise of RB DeMarco Murray. The Oklahoma alum ran for 146 YDs on 18 ATT against the Bears. The week prior he scored 3 TDs in a win over the Raiders.

Green Bay's defense hasn't been great either. They rank 21st against the pass at 246.8 YPG and 25th against the run, allowing 122.6 YPG. They have allowed at least 27 points eight different times this year. Detroit got them for 40 points on Thanksgiving Day. Comparatively, Dallas is dead last against the pass at 298.5 YPG and 28th against the run, giving up 128.4 YPG. They allowed the Bears to score on their first eight possessions on Monday Night. Needless to say, adjustment can and will be made.

Not crazy about laying a TD here, so best to wait until all books post numbers as the status of Rodgers becomes more clear. He's listed as doubtful as of Friday morning. Not so sure he'd make a positive impact if in fact he did play. He hasn't played in over a month and is obviously still experiencing pain. Tony Romo has a HUGE monkey to get off his back and this may be the perfect time to do so. Our numbers suggest the Cowboys are the right side here, with or without Rodgers. Cowboys -7 or better
 

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