Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
Houston Texans
NFL Week 2
Free Pick
9/18/16
Kansas City needed a huge comeback and overtime to defeat the San Diego Chargers. The Chiefs’ coaching staff allowed their players to go back to their college days and run the speed option with Alex Smith and SpeNCer Ware. It wasn’t overly effective until the Game wore on.
Not sure if it was a case of the Chargers being the Chargers and giving up a lead or if the Chiefs truly took the Game from the Chargers. Either way, the Chiefs walked away with a one in the win column.
SpeNCer Ware dominated the passing Game yardage wise, but in typical Chiefs’ fashion the ball was spread around to numerous players. At this point, the Chiefs are still uNCertain if Charles in Charge (Jamaal Charles) will be ready for week two, but if he is, look for him to add a consistent home run threat to their offense.
The best thing to happen to the Chiefs’ defense was an ACL tear in Keenan Allen’s knee. As a football fan and a human being, it’s terrible to see that happen. Keenan Allen was on his way to a monstrous Game and was tearing apart the Chiefs’ all-pro corner, Marcus Peters.
ONCe Keenan Allen went down, the Chargers’ offense was weak. I’d expect the Chiefs’ defensive line to apply more pressure to help out their backs otherwise having to cover the Texans’ young and talented wide receivers will not be fun.
The Texans have plenty of speed on the offensive side of the ball. With LAmar Miller, Will Fuller, and Deandre Hopkins, we would have expected their offense to produce better than they did against the Bears. The Texans won the Game and their quarterback played a solid Game, but it wasn’t anything spectacular.
Their defense did hold a mediocre Bears’ offense to zero points in the second half so that was uplifting for the Texans. However, the Texans still needed a Fourth quarter comeback to win the Game.
The Chiefs will be heading to Houston to take on the Texans. Lines indicate that the Texans are a 2.5 point favorite in this Game which translates into the Texans having a 54.5% chance to win this Game and the Chiefs a 45.5% chance.
We plugged the data into the Elo model which includes various inputs iNCluding strength of opponent and margin of victory. The Elo model tells us that the Chiefs should be favored by 6 points in this Game or have a 71% chance to win.
Prediction – the Chiefs’ defensive line will create problems for Brock Osweiler and he’ll be forced into a few costly turnovers. We’ll think the Chiefs win this one straight up. Chiefs +2.5