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Dallas Cowboys

vs.

Denver Broncos

NFL Pick

9/17/17

By Jason Green

The Cowboys won their season opener where they played exceptional defense and they have to be happy to have RB Ezekiel Elliot, who had his six-game suspension put on hold by the courts even though the league is still wrangling legally to uphold it. Dallas held the New York Giants to only three points in their first game of the season and they head to Mile High City as a -2.5 point betting favorite against the Broncos at  betonline and 5 dimes with a total of 42.

The Broncos dodged a bullet in their last game beating the L.A. Chargers by three points blocking a game-tying FG with a second remaining. They had control of the game, but gave up 14 points while going scoreless in the 4th quarter. Denver stuffed the run in that game and will be tested in this game by Elliot, who led the league in rushing yards last season and had over 100 in the opening win over the Giants.

These teams met last in the 2013 season in Dallas where the Broncos beat the Cowboys 51-48 in a shootout.

The Cowboys beat the New York Giants 19-3 in their first game of the season where they only gave up a total of 233 yards and only gave up 35 rushing yards. Dak Prescott was 24 for 39 for 268 yards and a TD and no INT in the game and six players had at least 30 receiving yards led by Terrance Williams    (68 yards). Elliot rushed for 104 yards averaging a pretty good 4.3 yards per carry. The Cowboys will be facing a stout Denver defense that gave up less than 300 yards in their season opener.

The Broncos beat the Chargers 24-21 in their season opener and they played solid D and rushed for 140 yards. Trevor Siemian wasdecent going 17 for 28 for 219 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, but he was sacked four times. He had a legit WR corps, Demaryius Thomas led them with 5 catches for 67 yards in Week 1, and RB’s C.J. Anderson  (81 yards) and Jamaal Charles (40 yards) are a solid duo out of the backfield. Von Miller and company need to pressure Prescott in this game and they cannot allow Elliot to have a big game running the ball. If they can do those things they have a great chance to win, but if they do not they are likely in trouble, as they don’t have a dynamic offense that will light up the scoreboard.

Key Betting Trends

The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and in their last 17 road games the Under record is 14-3.

The Broncos are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 home games, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and in their last 11 games facing a team with a winning record the Under record is8-3. 

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these teams.

In the last 6 games between these teams the Over record is 5-1.

Jason’s Pick: Man, I really hate to pick the Cowboys in this game, as I don’t like them. However, they are THE pick in this game even on the road. Elliot and Prescott will play well and the Dallas D will keep the Broncos in check. I don’t see a blowout in this one, but the Cowboys will get the W and cover the spread moving to 2-0 on the young season.

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