Bills
vs.
Dolphins
Week 17
NFL Pick
12/31/17
By: Jason Green
Buffalo Bills (8-7 SU 8-6-1 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (6-9 SU 5-8-2 ATS)
The Bills had their two-Game winning streak snapped in their last Game losing tor the New England Patriots, but the last Game they won was facing the Dolphins. Buffalo is still in the playoff picture, but they need help and a lot of it. First they MUST win this Game and then they have to have the Titans and Chargers lose and they could also get in the post-season if they win and the Ravens beat the Bengals, which is more likely. It is pretty easy for the Bills, as they have to rely on the run in this Game and play good D.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Bills are the 2.5-point favorite with a total of 42,5.
The Dolphins are out of the playoff picture and they need a win in this finale to avoid a double-digit loss season. After winning two in a row they have dropped their last two where their offense struggled only combining for 29 points. While Miami ranks 19th in the league in passing yards per Game they do not rank in the top 26 in the league in rushing yards per Game, ppg, or points allowed.
A couple of weeks ago in Buffalo the Bills beat the Dolphins 24-16.
The home team has covered the spread in six of the last eight Games between these teams.
In their last Game the Bills were on the road and lost to the New England Patriots 37-16. They kept it close for a while, as the Game was tied at the half, but Buffalo was outscored 24-3 in the 2nd half. The Bills were out-GAined 411 yards to 326 yards and the only turnover in the Game GAve the Bills a 10-3 lead with a pick 6 of Tom Brady, but it was all downhill after that. Buffalo only managed 83 rushing yards while they GAve up 193 yards on the ground. Tyrod Taylor passed for 281 yards with no TD or INT and Deonte Thompson led three players with at least 70 receiving yards with 91. LeSean McCoy rushing for 72 yards and averaged a legit 4.2 yards per carry, but when Buffalo went down they had to go to their air, which is not their strength ranking dead last in the league in passing yards per Game. This season the Bills are only 2-5 on the road.
Miami ranks 17th in the league defending the pass and 15th defending the run.
The Dolphins were on the road in their last Game and they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 29-13. While they had 345 total yards in the Game they GAve up 404 and had two turnovers while not forcing any. In their last two Games, the first against the Bills, the Fish have five turnovers and have not forced one. Jay Cutler was not bad with 286 yards with a TD and no INT, but the run Game only went for a grand total of 59 yards and the RB’s were ACCountable for both fumbles. Miami had more overall yards than the Bills in their recent road loss facing them, but they turned the ball over three times. This season the Dolphins are 4-3 at home.
Buffalo ranks 18th in the league in pass D and 30th in run D, but can the Dolphins take advantage of that and not cough up the rock?
The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road Games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Games facing teams from the AFC East, and in their last 10 Games they have an Over record of 7-3.
The Dolphins are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 home Games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record, and in their last 10 Games they have an Over record of 8-2.
Jason’s Pick: The Bills are only 2-5 on the road this season, but they need this Game and they will get it. McCoy will have a big day on the ground, the Buffalo D will be solid, and Miami will find a way to turn the ball over. Buffalo will win and cover the spread and stay alive in the playoff picture.