Free Pick – Texas A&M at Colorado
The Colorado Buffaloes host Texas A&M on Saturday, September 11th. The game kicks off at 3:30 PM EST and can be seen on FOX. Texas A&M is a -17 point road favorite with a total of 50 at GTBets Sportsbook.
Texas A&M is seeing the bulk of the betting action in terms of the number of bets being placed on them, however the actual money on this game is fairly evenly distributed.
The Aggies are going to be a popular betting choice all year. They were 9-1 last season and just missed making the playoffs, ranking #5 at the time. They won their Bowl game against North Carolina and finished the year at #4.
Aggies National Title Contenders
The Aggies are picked by many to contend for the national title this year. Their only loss in 2020 came against Alabama and it wasn’t close. A 52-24 loss. They are loaded with talent and the roster is deep.
Colorado played just 6 games last season and went 4-2. They started the year 4-0 and had Utah on the ropes in their 5th game. They led 21-10 in the 3rd but allowed the Utes to score 28 unanswered points and lost 38-21. They were then blown out by Texas in the Alamo Bowl.
The Aggies started their 2021 season with a 41-10 win over Kent State. The Buffs beat Northern Colorado 35-7 in their 2021 debut.
Might Not Be Close
Our model shows the Aggies winning this game by 15 points when we use data from all of last year. However when we use data just from the stretch run for both, the model has Texas A&M winning in blowout fashion.
That last result is because there is more emphasis on the two best teams Colorado played last year, Utah and Texas. Those two games show that the Buffs weren’t quite ready to compete with the upper echelon of college football.
Well, Texas A&M is the upper echelon of college football in 2021. +17 is a big number for a home dog. It’s certainly tempting. More than likely, Colorado makes a game of this early on. There’s value in considering the Buffs +5.5 for the 1st quarter and +10 if you can find it for the first half.
But ultimately, this game may go the way the Utah and Texas games went last season. The Buffs were in both of those games at the half but the deep talent of Utah and Texas wore them down and took over in the 2nd half.