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Handicapping a Wet Derby Track
Mudders Day ?
5/1/10
***NOTE: 2011 DERBY COVERAGE HERE
They say that April showers bring May flowers, but not on May 1. It could still
be raining heavily in Louisville, KY and that will have a huge impact on the
Kentucky Derby. The vast majority of the field is untested on off going. There
is really no way to know for sure who will like it. Horses that prefer muddy,
sloppy, or good tracks are called “mudders”. Could we see a mud lark like Mine
That Bird shock the world again this year? I can’t wait to find out. In the
meantime, let’s look at some of the horses best suited to handle an off track.
Lookin at Lucky - The favorite looks geared to handle anything. He is a
son of Smart Strike who has sired horses like Breeders Cup Turf winner Better
Talk Now, Preakness winner Curlin, and Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. ‘Lucky
has a Wet Tomlinson Rating of 392. Anything over 300 is acceptable, so his
number is superb. He worked well in the mud firing off five furlongs in 1:00
4/5. He won’t have a problem with any type of track.
Endorsement - With a Wet Tomlinson Rating of 454 you would think this son
of Distorted Humor will relish a little give in the ground. Combine that with
his Distance Tomlinson Rating of 381, and he looks like a huge threat to upset
the apple cart in this year’s Run for the Roses. He has a short resume, but
registered a powerful victory in the Sunland Derby over the previously
undefeated Conveyance. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101 for that effort.
The $450k auction purchase is improving. If it rains on Saturday his chances
will be lifted.
Super Saver - This colt broke his maiden second time out by seven lengths
over a sloppy track. Before that he was second to fellow Derby contender
Discreetly Mine over a good track. His Wet Tomlinson Rating of 412 means he will
have no problems whatsoever with a wet track; not that we needed the number to
know that. This colt would run on glass if he had to, but we think his chances
would be elevated if it rains on Saturday. The son of Maria’s Mon will have the
services of last year’s winning jockey Calvin Borel. You can bet Borel will be
doing a rain dance the night before.
Noble’s Promise - It would be very interesting to see this son of Cuvee
on a wet surface. He has a massive Wet Tomlinson Rating of 468. That is the
highest of any horse in the race. It appears that Kenny McPeek’s colt is sitting
on a big effort after regressing in his second race of the year. Typically, the
third effort after a long spell away from the track is a peak effort. He has
displayed plenty of ability throughout his career. He won the Grade 1 Breeders’
Futurity at two, and was second in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at the age of three.
He clearly has what it takes, and rain may be the wildcard he needs to get in
the winner’s circle on the First Saturday in May.
Dean’s Kitten - Michael Maker’s son of Kitten’s Joy will be one of the
longest shots in the race, but he is not without hope. Last out he took the
Grade 2 Lanes End Stakes in his first effort over a synthetic surface and he
will now tackle dirt. His daddy could run all day, and his Wet Tomlinson Rating
of 337 is more than good enough. While not the same, he won a race over a soft
turf course which would be the equivalent of sloppy or muddy on dirt. He is an
“X” factor and he would really shake things up with a big run.
2010 Kentucky Derby Coverage
Kentucky Derby Handicapping Systems
Bob Baffert - Derby Trainer Profile
Mudders Day - Handicapping a Wet Derby Track
Kentucky Oaks Preview and Best Bets
Top Jockeys for 2010 Kentucky Derby
Top Derby Contender Sidney’s Candy Profile
Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby Trainer Profile
Kentucky Derby Favorite Lookin at Lucky - Profile
Kentucky Derby Head to Head Matchup Picks