Here at Bettorsworld, we have been writing about handicapping online for 17 years. As you can imagine, during that time frame, we have covered just about every topic imaginable. Handicapping the NFL Pre Season is one topic we have covered over the years. So in this article, we’ve combined the tips and advice from several past NFL preseason handicapping articles and put them all in one place. Skim through and you’ll be sure to find some helpful tips and tricks to help you when handicapping the 2011 NFL Pre Season.
NFL exhibition Game betting can be profitable if you know what you are doing. Handicapping the pre season is very different than regular season handicapping. NFL pre season lines move very quickly and often move several points. Here’s a few tips.
Information, information, information. Did I mention information? One of the keys to success in the preseason is information. Coaches frequently give you their exact Game plans. They will lay out for you exactly what their strategy and Game plan is going in. Which players they want to take long looks at. The QB rotation. Whether they are going to take a long look at a running back, or a receiver. All of these things will iNFLUeNCe the outcome of a Game as well as the betting lines, both sides and totals. If a coach tells you that he is going to take a long look at a rookie defensive back, and you know Terrell Owens is going to play against him for 2 quarters, well, he may very well get smoked frequently.
So, where do you get this coveted information in order to implement these strategies? That’s where you have to be creative. Sure, you can get lots of info online by looking at newspaper sites. But by the time it shows up there, it may be too late. Pre season betting lines move fast. Sometimes teams official websites offer information not found elsewhere. One of the best sOurces for information, is talk radio. Just about all major football markets have a sports talk radio show, where the head coach, or some key personnel, has a weekly spot. Most times, this is a live spot. During preseason, they’ll talk to the coach and go over key elements and strategy of the current weeks Game. This is the information that usually ends up in the paper…….the next day. By getting this info live, right from the horses mouth, you can act ACCordingly, quickly. In baseball, Barry Bonds used to be a major factor in the betting lines. When it became known whether he was going to be in the lineup or not, lines would move drastically. Lot’s of sharps would get this info, from talk radio spots.
I mention acting quickly because of the line moves. This is true not only if you plan on straight betting, but of course, for middling. Middling the pre season NFL can be very profitable because there is so much volatility in the lines. It takes a lot less to move a pre season line, than it does a regular season line. An example of this would be handicapper Phil Steele. Phil has a large following. He puts out a nice college football annual, and in it, offers his pre season service free for the first couple of weeks. So the number of players/bettors getting his pre season Games, is enormous. Whether he wins or not, is a different story, but one thing is certain, his plays move the line. So, if you’re planning on middling the NFL pre season, get Phil’s plays.
Successful NFL bettors understand the differeNCes between regular season and preseason Games. A coach’s preseason focus isn’t purely centered on winning, but embraces a range of objectives, iNCluding: 1. avoiding injury to starters; 2. giving starters enough playing time to shake the off the rust, and 3. evaluating players who are close to making the team.
During the preseason non-starters see a lot of playing time even though most have only practiced the offensive and defensive schemes for a few weeks. The offensive side is more difficult to pick up quickly – offensive linemen must coordinate blocking against potential blitzes, and new quarterbacks need to learn to read defenses under pressure.
The effect during this period is that offenses are usually trying catch-up to defenses. Consequently, where a typical NFL Game averages about 43 points per Game, preseason Games only average 37.5 points, with the median being even lower. While it’s surprising how much lower-scoring preseason Games are, it’s even more startling that the markets are not adjusted ACCordingly. If you played every single “under” in preseason, you would have won 55% of your bets over the last several years.
Weather can play a key role in the NFL pre season, and early college football betting and can be one of the most profitable strategies. Why? Because it’s hurricane season. It happens every year. Hurricanes threaten the US mainland every year. Obviously, if one hits at Game time, they won’t play. But what frequently happens, is the remnants of a storm affect an area with torrential rain and gusty winds, in which case, they still play the Games. The trick here, is to chart the storms, and anticipate when the weather will affect certain area’s of the country. A storm can come ashore in Texas thru the Gulf, with the remnants then making their way east cutting thru the middle of the country having an affect all the way thru New England. Betting lines are iNCredibly slow to react to this and you can often get a jump. Lines are posted a week in advaNCe, as you know. About the same amount of time it takes for a weather pattern to make it’s way east. The lines often won’t move until a day or two before the weather hits. Think ahead!
Coaching is also key. Simply put, some coaches like to win reGArdless of when the Game is played. Other coaches could care less about preseason wins and losses.
Lastly, I personally like to take a close look at teams that are 0-2 or 0-3. Simply because no team wants to head into the regular season on a losing note. Ending up 0-4 in the preseason can have a psychological affect on a team that can carry over into the regular season. This angle can become even stronger if the 0-3 team is playing a 3-0 team. If a coaching angle also agrees, you have the makings of a best bet.
Hopefully you’ll iNCorporate some of the information in this article in your own pre season handicapping. Hopefully, you’ll also learn to think outside the box, so to speak, and will do your own research and uNCover your own angles and sOurces of information. If you do, you’ll have a heck of a chance at beating the NFL pre season and showing a nice profit to jump start your bankroll for the long season ahead. As you can see, information is the key to all of these preseason betting strategies. The better your sOurces and the quicker you get this information, the more likely it will pay off. Good LUck!