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49ers

vs.

Bucs

NFL Pick

Betting Trends

12/15/13

The Tampa Bay Bucs host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday in a game featuring a Super Bowl contender, the 49ers, and a  team dead in the water, the Bucs. The 49ers are currently -5 point road favorites at betonline with a total of 41. 72% of the action taken on this game at sportsbook.com has come in on the 49ers while 79% has come in on the under.

The Bucs have had an up and down, mostly down, season. Disappointing to say the least. But they have proven to be a tough out to some pretty good football teams. They lost to the Saints by just 2, the Cards and Seahawks by 3 and the beat the Lions and Dolphins by 3. Those are all playoff teams and they either beat them or took them to the wire. Only the Patriots and Panthers were able to extend a margin against the Bucs.

The Niners had a couple of early season hiccups in back to back losses to the Seahawks and Colts but really haven't looked back since. The did lose in back to back weeks again a few weeks back, dropping a 1 point decision to the Panthers and a 3 point decision to the Saints. But they were able to pay back the Seahawks for that early season loss by beating them 19-17 last week, leaving no doubt that they are a contender in this years playoff picture.

Now the 49ers must be careful not have a letdown here in off that very emotional win a week ago. Staying focused and winning convincingly here would go a long way towards building that playoff confidence as come playoff time, if they advance past the early rounds, they'll be on the road in the big spots.

Our numbers say San Fran is the side here, but barely. Of the various ways we have of making a line on a game, they all fall within the 4-6 range favoring the 49ers. So, you might say the oddsmakers have posted the correct number here making this game a pass.

If forced to make a pick here, it would have to be the 49ers. This is the time of year where legitimate playoff teams have to separate themselves from the 4 win teams like the Bucs. Those 4 wins for the Bucs came in the last 5 games, making them incredibly dangerous here. But one need only look at their lone loss in that stretch to see where they really stand. That loss was a 27-6 beat down at the hands of the Panthers. That's what legitimate playoff teams do to 4 win teams, regardless of when those wins came. 49ers -5

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