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College Football

Betting Against

the Public

Percentages

9/14/13

Betting against the public is a betting strategy that has been around for years. Years ago, a bettor might get access to an office pool, particularly an NFL office pool, and would see who everyone was picking in any given week, and then just go the opposite. This was always a worthwhile strategy. Why? Because the average guy bettor falls in love with certain teams. He's overly impressed with resent results as well, such as last weeks blow out wins. Oddsmakers would set inflated lines on those teams to begin with, and the public wouldn't care, they'd still bet those teams, making the line go even higher and creating more value  for the bettor taking the other side.

Within the last decade, some sportsbooks started offering betting percentages. They don't show the actual amount of money bet on each team, but they do show how many wagers have been placed on each team. The sharp bettor can use this info to their advantage. For example, let's say 85% of the action on a particular game is on one team, but the line never budges. That's usually a good indication that there's some sharp money on the other side. Gun to my head, I'm going with that side.

Sportsbook.com is a fantastic book not only to play in, but to look at their betting percentages? Why? Because they're aren't many sportsbooks in the entire world, bigger than sportsbook.com. The "public" or "square" action outnumbers the sharp action by a mile. So it's the best book to use when taking these percentages into account. Anyone can look at these percentages. All you need is an account at sportsbook.com

Here are a few of the more lopsided college football games for this week. We'll list the public side along with the percentage of action on that side. Now, the public isn't always wrong. I wouldn't get off a game I like, just because the public likes the same side. However, it would make me think twice and double check. When I like a game and I'm in the minority, I feel much better about the wager.

Stanford 97%

Louisville 91%

Michigan 96%

Virginia Tech 87%

UCLA 74%

Oklahoma 80%

Arkansas 97%

Pitt 72%

Rutgers 77%

BC 72% (this one surprises me)

Florida St 86%

Ga Tech 90%

No Illinois 97%

South Carolina 74%

Ohio St 85%

Maryland 78%

W Kentucky 88%

Rice 81%

Ole Miss 91%

Notre Dame 81%

Wisconsin 74%

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