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Chiefs

vs.

Titans

NFL Pick

Betting Trends

10/6/13

The 3-1 Titans host the 4-0 Chiefs Sunday in NFL action in a game most people figured would be a dud prior to this season getting underway. Instead it's a game that appears to be between two of the better teams in the NFL. Or are they?

This is the type of game that makes handicapping sports such a challenge. Are these teams that good? Or, are they a product of their weak schedules? The Chiefs look fantastic and Andy Reid looks like a hero, but check out three of their wins. They beat the Jags, Eagles and Giants! Three of the worst teams in the NFL, at least up until this point. The Titans own wins over the Steelers, Jets and Chargers and a loss to the Texans. A little better, but not much. To the Chiefs credit, they beat the Cowboys.

Currently the Chiefs are -2.5 point favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook (where you can get reduced juice). The total is 38.5, down from an opener of 41.5.

The betting trends at sportsbook.com show us that the public has bought into the Chiefs success as 76% of the action has come in on the Chiefs. The public has also gone against the line move to the under on the total as 85% of the action is on the over.

We're going to go against the public here on both the side and the total, but not simply for the sake of going against the public. Our numbers suggest a tight low scoring game here so we get the benefit of statistical analysis agreeing with the against the public angle. A nice combo. Titans +3 -130 (buy a half point) and Under 38.5  You might be able to do better on the juice using the reduced juice at 5 dimes.

 

CHIEFS
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games
Kansas City is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee


TITANS
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

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