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Dolphins

vs.

Steelers

Week 14

NFL Pick

Betting Trends

12/13/13

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7, 3-2 home) will look to deliver a setback to the Miami Dolphins (6-6, 3-3 away) playoff hopes while trying to hang on to the small chance they have left for postseason play at 1 PM EST on CBS. Pittsburgh is fresh off a 22-20 loss on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. An incident involving Mike Tomlin stepping on the field during a play resulted in a $100k fine for the Steelers head coach. Miami, moving on from the Martin/Incognito scandal, handed the New York Jets a 23-3 loss at MetLife Stadium. They gained a season high 423 total yards.

5Dimes and Betonline have the Steelers listed as three-point favorites at -125. The Total is 41 points depending on your online sportsbook of choice. The UNDER is taking 74 % of the action from the sports betting public. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games. The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh.

The offensive passing attack led by Ben Roethlisburger (92.4 RAT, 3,375 YDs, 21 TDs) is the focal point of the Steelers offense. This is the NFL's 8th best passing attack and it gains 261.8 YPG. WR Antonio Brown (85 REC, 1,103 YDs, 6 TDs) leads the NFL in REC and has rarely been stopped this season. WR Jerricho Cotchery (36 REC, 509 YDs, 8 TDs) is Big Ben's best red zone target. The Dolphins defense ranks 9th in OPP Passing Yards, but 25th in OPP Rushing YDs. That means RB Le'Veon Bell has to step his game up and continue to play well. The rookie runner gained 73 YDs on the ground and 63 YDs through the air last week and 80 YDs rushing the week prior to that. Containing Miami DE Olivier Vernon will be key for the Steelers. Vernon has 10 sacks this year, including 2.5 last week against the Jets.

Miami QB Ryan Tannehill (83.2 RAT, 3,115 YDs, 17 TDs) has steadily progressed over the season and is thriving in his role as the starter. The second year player exits one of his best games of the year, dropping 331 YDs and 2 TDs for a 94.2 RAT against the Jets. He doesn't really have a go-to target, but rather he works the ball to several different players. He has five targets with multiple TDs this year. He does his work with the support of a running game that operates by the tandem of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas getting the bulk of the carries. Tannehill can run too; he's got 164 YDs on 32 rushes this season. He will face a Steelers defense that is having a down year, but still shows up to play. They rank 11th against the pass and 18th against the run.

These teams last met in 2010 with the Steelers registering narrow victories both times despite playing on the road in both games.

When using yards per point to make a line for this game, the Dolphins would come up as a -2 point fav on a neutral field. Give the Steelers those 2 points back for home field and this game comes up as a pick em when using the ypp method to make a line. Our model agrees, predicting a 23-20 Dolphins win. Dolphins +3 even

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