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This weeks offering of NFL Thursday Night Football features the New York Giants visiting the Chicago Bears. The Giants of course, come into this game winless at 0-5 while the Bears are in 2nd place in the NFC North and are looking to bounce back after a home loss to the Saints last week. The Bears are currently -7.5 at most sportsbooks, including betonline and GTBets. The total is 47.
Looking at the betting trends at sportsbook.com, we see that the Bears have received most of the early action as 63% of the wagers have come in on the home team Bears. Perhaps not as lopsided as we might have expected, considering how bad the Giants have been this season.
There's simply nothing to like about the Giants. They are simply, terrible. They come in with yards per point numbers of 20.5 on offense and 10.9 on defense. It simply doesn't get any worse than that. The Bears have a very good offensive number of 12.7 and a poor number defensively of 13.5. There lies the Giants chances in this one. Eli Manning against a Bears defense that's been very "un-Bear like". Using the yards per point numbers to make a line on this one, the Bears would be -12.
Also check out the turnover margin differential. The Bears are +4 and the Giants, as you might expect from a bad team, are -13. If you're backing the Giants here, you're doing so on nothing more than a guess that this is the week that for whatever reason, they put it all together. Hey, it could happen. This is the NFL, where nothing is ever as it seems and there are shocking outcomes week after week.
But from a handicapping point of view, based on past performance from this year, season to date, the only way to look is to the Bears to bounce back from a home loss and get the W. More times than not, if you can pick the straight up winner of an NFL game, you'll get the cover as well.
Our model also likes the Bears by a score of 41-26. Chicago it is. Bears -7
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the NY Giants last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 7 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of the NY Giants last 11 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games when playing NY Giants
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Chicago is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
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