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Seahawks

vs.

Texans

Week 4

NFL Pick

Betting Trends

9/29/13

The Seattle Seahawks travel to Houston to take on the Texans Sunday in what could be one of the better games of the day. The undefeated Seahawks are -2.5 point road favorites at GTBets with a total of 42. The Texans come in at 2-1 having lost last week to Baltimore.

Looking at the betting trends at sportsbook.com, the Seahawks have drawn 67% of the betting action as of Friday and the over has seen 71%.

We say this game has the potential to be one of the better games but what do we really know 3 games in? Both teams were expected to be contenders this year and while there's only one loss between the two, it's safe to say there are some questions to be answered for the Texans.

The Texans have given up 28, 24 and 30 points in three games and while they won the first two games and managed 31 and 30 points themselves, they were held to just 9 last week by the Ravens. In comes the Seahawks who, three games in, look to be among the NFL's elite. It's still early, and they have a win over the hapless Jags, but so far, the Seahawks look to be for real.

Yards per point numbers are a great handicapping tool. However, we really need 4 weeks of data minimum before we can start to use them as a measuring stick. That being said, 3 games into the season, those numbers are starting to take shape. The Seahawks are ranked 3rd in defensive yards per point while the Texans are dead last, 32nd in the NFL. Things aren't much better offensively for the Texans as they rank 18th while the Seahawks are 7th overall.

Our score prediction model has the Seahawks on top by a score of 27-13. Like yards per point, our model requires 4+ games of data, however, just like the ypp numbers, our model is starting to take shape. From a logical handicapping perspective, there's only one way to look in this one and that's the Seahawks. If you're backing the Texans here, you're doing so based on LAST year and hoping the Texans revert to form. I suppose you'd also be banking on the home field helping out.

We'll side with the numbers here. Even though it's early, it simply doesn't look good for the Texans. Seahawks -2.5

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