Week 16
NFL Picks
12/20 AND 12/21
Chargers +1 over 49ers – Saturday Night – The 49ers are in the NFL basement in terms of yards per point offensive numbers. They join the likes of the Jags, Jets, Skins, Titans, Raiders and Browns, all teams with inept offenses in 2014. Very difficult to recommend a team with those numbers. Throw in the dead man walking coach and all of the other distractions surrounding this team and a straight up Charger win doesn’t seem like too much to ask.
Eagles -8 over Redskins – SAT – Speaking of bad yards per point numbers, The Redskins are dead last with a 19.5 on offense and a 12.8 on defense. Can’t Scoreand can’t stop anyone. Great combo. Eagles still very much alive and should bouNCe back from last weeks loss in a big way in this spot.
Vikings +6.5 over Dolphins – Our model likes the Dolphins here. But we don’t. Other than their 36 point outburst vs. a very poor Broncos defense, the Fish have managed 13, 13, 16, 22 and 16 points in their 5 previous Games. Not exactly the kind of offensive output that makes you comfortable laying points. So, we won’t.
Packers -10 over Bucs – Our model actually predicted that Buffalo win over the Packers last week, so no surprise here. Our model likes the Packers by 19+ in this one and we agree. We all know the Packers will have quite a bit to say come playoff time. With that in mind, we’d expect a big effort here against one of the weaker teams in the league.
Falcons +6 over Saints – The division no one wants to win is up for grabs as two 5 win teams face off and are battling for the division lead. It used to be the Saints were bad on the road. Now they are bad at home. Or, are they just bad?
Bears +8.5 over Lions – We’ll buck the public here. Classic set up for the Bears. No one in their right mind would want to back this team after what we’ve seen unfold on National TV over the last 3 weeks. But sometimes, that’s the best time to step in. The Lions have a defense but no offense, which makes laying points a risky proposition. Speaking of risky props, backing Jimmy Clausen against this formidable Lions “D” may be too much to ask. Perhaps UNDER 44.5 would have more value as the Lions don’t figure to Scoremuch and the Bears may not Scoreat all!
Patriots -10 over Jets – Yeah the Scorewas 27-25 the first time around and the Jets have a knack for playing the Pats tough. But Brady and company have the pedal to the floor with no letup in sight and this is one of the worst Jet teams in many, many years. Belichick sticks it to Rex one last time.
Chiefs +3 over Steelers – KC had lost 3 straight before getting by the Raiders last week. But I’m not a big believer in the Steelers and think the Chiefs are the better team.
Ravens -5 over Texans – Call this one a playoff Game for the Ravens. Baltimore may be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But unless they win here, we may never know. Fitzpatrick is done for the year for the Texans and that cold be the differeNCe here. Note however, Texans no pushovers.
Bills -5.5 over Raiders – Watch out for these Bills. As Our model predicted, they knocked off the Packers last week and the week before GAve Peyton Manning all he could handle. This team can play some “D” and should have no trouble against one of the worst team in the NFL this week. Anything less than a TD is a barGAin here.
Cowboys -3 over Colts – Nothing more than a huNCh here as the Colts can certainly play with anyone and will be a force in the playoffs. Time is running out on the Romo led Cowboys. How many more chances will the Cowboys have with Romo behind center? They responded when they had to last week, albeit by almost letting it slip away, so why not again. Maybe this is THE year for Cowboys fans? This is a weak call on Our part though.
Cards +7.5 over Seattle – Yeah, we know, the waterboy is in at QB this week for the Cards. But this team has never been about the QB. It’s been about the best defense in the NFL. True, the Seahawks are coming together at just the right time and may want to stake claim to having the best “D”, but from beginning to end this year in the NFL, no one has been better than the Cards as their league leading ypp # on defense of 20.1 proves. The feeling here is that this one is close, despite the QB problems for Arizona.