NFL
Week 9
Picks
against the Spread
11/2/14
Chargers +1.5 over Dolphins – Pretty much a must win Game for both teams as neither can afford to fall further behind in their respective divisions. When the dust clears come playoff time we believe it’s the Chargers, not the Dolphins who will be legitimate contenders. If that holds true, they’ll win this one.
Bengals/Jags Under 43.5 – Can’t really trust either side here as a spread play. However, if we use only the last 4 Games with Our model, it predicts a total of 37 points scored so we’ll go under the total.
Browns -6.5 over Bucs – The Browns Schedule hasn’t been all that difficult however we have to side with them in this one as the Bucs are simply a train wreck. We’d stress caution with this one however as Our model actually has the Bucs winning straight up when using only the last 4 Games of data!
Redskins/Vikings UNDER 43.5 – When using yards per point numbers to rank the offenses, these two have the 4th and 5th worst offenses in the NFL. Sure, Colt McCoy appears to have given the Skins offense a boost but that likely won’t last.
Eagles -2 over Texans – Need to be careful with the Texans as they have benefited from a soft Schedule as a result of their dismal 2013 season. Eagles Schedule not exactly killer however of the two, they look more like a legit playoff team and they need to bouNCe back from last weeks loss to the Cards.
Chiefs -9.5 over Jets – The Chiefs have covered their last 6 and own wins over the Chargers and Pats and lost close Games to the Broncos and 49ers. Meanwhile the Jets have lost 7 straight and look to be the worst team in the NFL. Our model as KC by at least 20.
Rams +10 over 49ers – The 49ers yards per point numbers are 15.8 on offense and 13 on defense. For the record, that’s not very good. In fact, that defensive number is 4th worst in the NFL. Bottom line, teams with those numbers aren’t the teams you want to be laying -10 points with.
Patriots +3 over Broncos – We’re going to go against Our model, which has the Broncos on top by more than 2 TD’s. Last year it was the Pats winning the regular season matchup and the Broncos winning in the playoffs. These two look to be on a collision course come playoff time oNCe again. Pats and Broncos have identical yards per point numbers with 12’s on offense (very good) and 15’s on defense (average). The line on this would could easily be pk to -3 Pats favored so we see some value taking the points in a Game the Pats could surely win straight up.
Raiders +15 over Seahawks – LAying double digits is dangerous in the NFL, especially when the team laying the wood is mediocre, which is exactly what the Seahawks have been thus far. Raiders are 0-7 but just two of those losses by more than 14 points and one just barely. Note – Raiders were +14 at New England – Final Scorewas 16-9.
Ravens -1 over Steelers – Go figure. We trash the Steelers offense and they come out and Score51 points. If they Score51 points this week, we promise to NOT pick another NFL Game the rest of the way. No, we aren’t worried about that happening. I won’t. The Steelers will likely have a much better showing this time around than back in week 2 losing to the Ravens 26-6, but we’re still on the Ravens here. The Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball and that defense ranks #1 when using yards per point to rank with a ypp number of 21.2. The Ravens are a playoff team for sure. The Steelers? Still not sure, but we aren’t going to get too caught up in last weeks performance.