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Lions

vs.

Saints

Week 6

NFL Pick

10/15/17

By: Jason Green


Detroit Lions (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-2 SU 2-2 ATS)

The Lions have lost two of their last three games and QB Matthew Stafford was banged up in the last game. He is a question mark for this game and if he cannot go Jake Rudock will get the start and he has never thrown a pass in a NFL game. Detroit ranks 10th in the league in both ppg and points against and while in the Big Easy this Sunday they are 2-0 at home, but only 1-2 at home.

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Saints are 5.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5.

After losing their first two games the Saints have won their last two games and they are coming off a bye week so they should be well rested. Drew Brees is putting up legit numbers as usual and getting some, not much, help from the run game, but after having one of the worst defenses in the league last season this season they rank 12th in points against.

These teams met last season in New Orleans with the Lions beating the Saints 28-13.

The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games facing the Lions.

The Lions are coming off a 27-24 loss to the Carolina Panthers where they scored 14 points in the 4th quarter, but the comeback fell short. Detroit only had 242 total yards in the game while they gave up 362 yards and also had a turnover. Stafford passed for 229 yards on a gimpy leg with 2 TD and 0 INT and three players had at least 45 receiving yards. The Lions failed to run the ball with only 50 rushing yards and after lead RB Ameer Abdullah rushed for 94 yards the previous week he only rushed for 31 yards averaging 3.1 yards per carry in the loss to Carolina. He also has a leg injury and while he should play in this game it is a concern that he and Stafford are banged up and less than 100%.

Stafford and company will face a New Orleans defense that is well rested and pitched a shutout in their last game.

The Saints had a bye last week and in their last game they beat the Miami Dolphins 20-0. They played a great game on defense holding the Dolphins to only 186 yards and they stuffed the run holding them to 58 rushing yards. Drew Brees was 29 for 41 for 268 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT and Michael Thomas and RB Alvin Kamara combined for 160 receiving yards. Mark Ingram led New Orleans with 45 rushing yards and only averaged 3.2 yards per carry.

The Detroit defense ranks a solid 7th in the league against the run, but only 29th against the pass and that is a major concern facing Brees in his house.

The Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, and in their last 29 road games the Under record is 22-7.

The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and in their last 7 games the Over record of 6-1.

Jason’s Pick:
The Saints have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games after a bye week. Look for that trend to continue with Stafford not at full speed. Brees will lead New Orleans to a win and they will move over .500 on the season. Oh yeah, they will also cover the spread at home.

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