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Green Bay Packers

vs.

Detroit Lions

Week 17

NFL Pick

1/1/17

By Jason Green


It is pretty easy as the winner of this game will win the NFC North and make the playoffs. However, both teams can get in with a tie or if the Redskins lose to the New York Giants earlier on Sunday. The Packers have won 5 in a row and Aaron Rodgers has been stellar in that span to get back in the MVP race. Earlier this season in Green Bay the Packers beat the Lions 34-27.

The Lions could have wrapped up a playoff berth in their last game, but they lost to the Dallas Cowboys. Detroit had their 5-game win streak snapped in that game. Matthew Stafford has had a solid season and he has carried the offense since the Lions rank 3rd to last in the league only averaging 82.3 rushing yards per game. The defense has been much improved for Detroit this season, but they gave up 42 points in their loss to the Cowboys in their last game.

In the Packers last game they beat the Minnesota Vikings 38-25 where they covered at home as a 6-point favorite.

The Lions lost to the Cowboys 42-21 in their last game where they did not cover as a 6.5-point road underdog.

Green Bay beat the Vikings in their last game even though they were out-gained by nearly 100 yards and only rushed for 40 yards. However, their D forced 2 turnovers and Rodgers had a great game passing for 347 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT. WR Jordy Nelson had 154 receiving yards in the game with 2 TD. Ty Montgomery struggled to run the ball with only 23 rushing yards after having a big game on the ground in his previous game.

Rodgers and company will be facing a Detroit defense that ranks 16th in the league against the pass and 17th against the run.

In their 21-point loss to the Cowboys the Lions had 2 turnovers and Stafford did have 260 yards, but did not have a TD and was picked off once. Detroit only rushed for 90 yards in the game with Zach Zenner being the lead rusher with 67 yards. Stafford has to play well and he does face a Green Bay pass defense that only ranks 29th in the league. The Packers do rank a solid 9th in the league defending the run, but their pass D is more important in this big game.

Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 23-11 ATS in their last 34 vs. NFC North, and in their last 5 games on the road the posted total has gone Over 4 times.

Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC North, and in their last 4 games at home the posted total has gone Under every time.

Bettorsworld Pick
- The Packers have been hot as of late and that no doubt has to be factored in here. However, even when only using the last 7 games data, our model predicts this to be a toss up. So we're more than willing to take the +3.5 here with a Lions squad that is eager to get into the playoffs and have the chance to win their 1st playoff game since 1991 (0-7 in the playoffs since then). Lions +3.5


 

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