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Panthers

vs.

Patriots

Week 4

NFL Pick

10/1/17 

By: Jason Green

Carolina Panthers (2-1 SU 1-2 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (2-1 SU 1-2 ATS)

The Panthers suffered their first loss of the season in their last game and it was a bad loss where they struggled on both sides of the ball. They lost by 21 points facing the New Orleans Saints and all three of their games this season have come against teams that did not make the playoffs last season. That changes in this game where Carolina is a double-digit underdog on the road facing the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots.

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Patriots are 10.5-point favorites with a total of 48.5.

After losing their first game of the season the Patriots have won their last two games. They were almost shocked last week at home facing the Houston Texans where the Pats needed some late magic from Tom Brady for the comeback win. Brady leads the NFL in passing yards, but their D has been an issue giving up an average of 27 ppg.

These teams met last in the 2013 season in Carolina where the Panthers beat the Patriots 24-20.

The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last five games facing the Patriots.

The Panthers lost to the New Orleans Saints 34-13 where they had three turnovers and only had 288 total yards. Cam Newton had a game to forget only passing for 167 yards with no TD and he three 3 INT and was sacked four times. Rookie Christian McCaffrey had 101 receiving yards and he also rushed for 16 yards with Jonathan Stewart leading the Panthers with 47 rushing yards. He averaged a legit 4.8 yards per carry, but Carolina had to air it out to try to come back and they cannot get down early in this game, as they have to run the ball. They will be facing a New England squad that gave up 125 rushing yards in their last game.

In their last game the Patriots beat the Houston Texans 36-33 where Tom Brady fired a 25-yard TD with only 23 seconds left to secure the win. Brady had a HUGE game passing for 378 yards with 5 TD and no INT and he had to do it all since the Pats only rushed for 59 yards. Mike Gillislee led New England with only 31 rushing yards averaging a paltry 2.6 yards per carry. He was brought in to be the lead RB, but after three games he has failed to average four yards per carry in any of them and only has145 rushing yards.

The Panthers only had one sack in their loss to the Saints and getting to Brady will be key and he was sacked five times in the win over Houston. Carolina does have the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense after three games and you can bet the house they will be tested in this non-conference match up facing the five-time Super Bowl winner.

The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, and in their last 7 games they have an Under record of 5-1-1.

The Patriots are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 home games, 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 7 games the Over record is 7-0.

Jason’s Pick: The Panthers have covered the spread in their last four games against the Patriots, but that trend will not continue. The Pats got a scare last week in the close win over the Texans, but they will not have one in this game. Brady will shine and the New England defense will have a better game than last week and the Patriots will win and cover the spread.

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